This is sort of where I think he is going with it. Run the compute part super cold (-60C) in a dielectric fluid. Maybe even at a low pressure. It boils off, gets collected, and is then condensed into something way hotter. Like boiling water hot. This is sent through a high temperature radiator for heat dispersion (because Stefan-Boltzmann has a damned 4), and then pumped back into the common storage area. Cycle indefinitely. Beyond the simple space whatever non-sense, there is a nugget of a good idea in there. Cold things are going to have less internal resistance - so they will produce less waste heat. If you can keep them at a constant temperature via submerged cooling they are also going to suffer less thermal stress due to heat fluctuations. So the vacuum of space becomes the perfect insulator. You can’t have humans getting into them anyways because then you have to reheat and recool, causing stress on the system. Just have to accept your slow component losses. Microsoft and IBM have been working the same basic concept for a while (decade plus), Elon is just throwing ‘Space!!’ into the equation because of who he is. I think it’s 50% hype and 50% this is where the industry is going regardless. I always assumed they would just find an abandoned mine or something. But the always-cold, thermally-stable, no-humans-allowed data center is coming. We are hitting the point where the upfront cost of doing it is overshadowed by the tail cost savings.
What amazes me the most is the speed at which things are advancing. Go back a year or even a year before that and all these incremental improvements have compounded. Things that used to require real effort to consistently solve, either with RAGs, context/prompt engineering, have become… trivial. I totally agree with your point that each step along the way doesn’t necessarily change that much. But in the aggregate it’s sort of insane how fast everything is moving.
The denial of this overall trend on here and in other internet spaces is starting to really bother me. People need to have sober conversations about the speed of this increase and what kind of effects it's going to have on the world.
Yeah, I really didn't believe in agentic coding until December, that was where it took off from being slightly more useful than hand crafting code to becoming extremely powerful.
I don’t use OpenAI too much, but I follow a similar work flow. Use Opus for design/architecture work. Move it to Sonnet for implementation and build out. Then finally over to Gemini for review, QC and standards check. There is an absolute gain in using different models. Each has their own style and way of solving the problem just like a human team. It’s kind of awesome and crazy and a bit scary all at once.
The way "Phases" are handled is incredible with research then planning, then execution and no context rot because behind the scenes everything is being saved in a State.md file...
I'm on Phase 41 of my own project and the reliability and almost absence of any error is amazing. Investigate and see if its a fit for you. The PAL MCP you can setup to have Gemini with its large context review what Claude codes.
I left technology about a decade ago to join the Military. It was an adjustment, but honestly was the greatest job I've ever had. Compared to tech where everything seemed high stress and had terrible work life balance, my military career was like playing on easy mode. Failure was impossible, no one wanted to stay a minute longer than they had to and everything was already on fire so putting it out was never really that urgent. It sounds crazy but I loved it. Now I am refreshed and pivoting back to tech with a fully funded Master's degree.
Honestly I would have done 20 years if I had been so lucky. My body had other plans however. I'm trying to get back into the embedded/defense space though. I was a low-level C/C++ programmer back in my early tech days and so it's been pretty neat coming back to it. Absolutely insane that these tiny little chips have so much raw compute power. I used to view under a millisecond as "good enough" but get to tinker with microseconds now.
We spent the 4-years under Biden capturing foreign investment via high interest rates. Now we are trapping them here via poor conversion rates. In a geopolitical, macro-economic sense we are "Elon Musking". Overpromise and under deliver. Take their money by selling them on a dream and then string them along with promises of future results. We have their money and they have "Fully Self Driving" lane-merge warnings.
The opposition to American hegemony shifted from Europe (ie the USSR) to Asia (ie China). To that end, NATO lacks the capacity to meaningfully impact a conflict in the Pacific. The EU simply does not have the means to project power in that way nor do they have the ability to meaningfully implement economic policies that would effectively reduce Chinese growth.
Trump is an asshole, but the strategy hasn’t really changed in the last decade or so. Obama tried to isolate China with European help, Trump 1.0 tried to convince Europe to step up, Biden showed them we were willing to move on, and now Trump 2.0 is following through.
People fail to realize how anti-European this past decade has been, and not just under Trump. Europe had significant issue with the Inflation Reduction Act. Not to mention the war in Ukraine, which while illegal and entirely caused by Russia, was capitalized upon by American diplomats to the absolute benefite of the US at the expense of Europe.
The overarching plan has been evident for a while, Trump is just blatant about it. He lacks the decorum to make someone happy about being gifted a lemon. Past administrations have had much more tact in that regard.
America does not want direct conflict with China. China doesn’t want direct conflict with America either. It would be catastrophic for both honestly. Neither side would emerge cleanly victorious. Both would be limping away scarred by the experience. To that end America is just trying to let the underlying structural issues play out. China and Europe both have some structural issues that need addressed. America is gonna build up it’s own hemisphere and simply wait the rest of the world out.
Is it the best plan? Honestly it might be. The more I see of it, the more comfortable I am growing with it. I was more worried about it in the Biden days simply because I was still under the mindset of Europe being an important ally. America was undermining the European economy on multiple fronts and it seemed like we were alienating some of our closest allies. Ironically what I think a lot of people are feeling now.
The truth is though that Europe is dead weight. Their economy is anemic, their still too fragmented militarily and they have been actively undermining America’s effects to derisk supply chains from China. Trump’s broad tariffs would have been handled better under someone else, but the end result would have been the same out of simple necessity. Since COVID America has grown more dependent on China due to second order effects. Everytime we close a door someone else opens a window to let them back in. And it’s not just Europe, but Canada, South Korea, others too. Honestly Mexico has probably been our best ally in that regard.
If you follow the geopolitical sphere most of what’s happening is not new. Trump hasn’t really changed the plan - he’s just subtle like a brick to the face. He is loud and boastful about it where before it was clever and subtextual. That is really the only change. Geopoliticallt he tries to dominate while Biden and Obama would convince people something stupid was what they really wanted.
I don’t know if that helps the anxiety at all. I’ve felt it, I’ve been there. I’ve yet to see a better plan though. Honestly, the next decade is gonna be bumpy, but if you look at the long-term trajectory, America is gonna be well ahead of the rest of the world by the 2040s. We are easily in the best strategic position I would say. Once you really wrap your mind around the various aspects of it, it’s not a bad plan. It’s not Trump’s plan, it’s not Biden’s plan, this plan has roots going back over a decade. I’m sure at some point it was just a COA under discussion with multiple decision points and alternatives. Could it have worked itself out differently? Probably. But given where we are it’s probably the best plan for now.
> To that end, NATO lacks the capacity to meaningfully impact a conflict in the Pacific. The EU simply does not have the means to project power in that way
This has been repeated elsewhere in this story. What's your thinking here? I assume you mean the non-US members of NATO, but you seem to have forgotten two G7 members if you're equating NATO - US with the EU.
The remaining members include two nuclear-armed states, five or so aircraft carriers, submarines, several large air forces, navies, etc. What would make them unable to project force into the Pacific?
Yes, Britain and France have aircraft carriers but they are old, small and likely to be sunk by modern hyper-sonics. Europe's inability to project power is well documented though. Most of the 2025 literature is more related to overland mobility in Europe, since that is the piece Europe is currently working to fix, but the European militaries are not designed for global engagement. Most American documents on the topic don't even really mention NATO's involvement against China. Here's some stuff to consider though. Here is a decent primer:
> The truth is though that Europe is dead weight. Their economy is anemic, their still too fragmented militarily
What an incredibly ignorant statement. Europe's economy in real terms is doing fine, their productivity is growing. The US's economy only looks good on paper, but outside of the AI bubble, companies aren't growing wages are stagnant with inflation.
Europe is also on the verge of federalization. But you have to understand getting over two dozen countries with vastly different cultures, histories and languages to cooperate is a gargantuan task. One the EU has been incredibly successful at.
Over the past 15 years the European economy has grown from 16.25 to 18.50 trillion per World Bank. In 2008 the combined economic strength of the EU was 110% of the United State's. Today it's ~65%. By and large the European economy completely missed the mark on the Internet/Web3.0 technology revolution. You certainly have bright spots like ASML, but those are the exception and not the rule. It's reindustrialization efforts are facing massive head wins from energy costs and China is absolutely wrecking their neo-colonial African holdings.
I hope the EU moves to a more Federalized model of governance - it would certainly benefit them. And I agree that it won't be easy. I am not sure California and Texas would agree to the model the United States has today. I can't even imagine what it would be like for Germany and France. But they have some serious issues to address. These are some foundational changes that are unlikely to happen in the next year or two.
Adjust GDP per hours worked, you will find Europe has eclipsed the US in terms of productivity.
The US has the benefit of the government borrowing insane amounts of money to juice it's economy, by being the world hegemony. That advantage has evaporated and you see the current capital going to unproductive industries.
The ratio in money between the revenues in Europe and those in USA is rather misleading.
With the same amount of money you can do much more in Europe. Even in the few domains where USA had a traditional advantage, like the prices of electronic devices, e.g. computers, things have changed a lot recently.
Prompted by another discussion thread on HN, I have compared yesterday some prices for computers and associated components in USA and in Europe. Now the prices in USA are 30% to 40% higher, in sharp contrast with how the price ratio was in the previous years, when prices were lower in USA.
The real economic strength of Europe vs. USA is much greater than the values of GDP expressed in USD, and including some meaningless indicators, would seem to imply.
Someone has downvoted for unknown reasons my posting, even if what I have written are just true facts, not some personal opinion.
Perhaps the downvoter has not believed that the prices have become so bad in USA, but then he/she should have checked the prices instead of downvoting.
After another HN poster has said yesterday that he has just bought a computer in Europe and the same computer was more expensive by 37.5% in USA, I thought that this is unbelievable, so I have also checked myself the prices.
I have just bought an ASUS NUC computer in Europe at a price equivalent with $490 and the same computer is on Newegg at $679, i.e. more expensive by 38.5%, a value very close to that reported by the other poster.
Moreover, I have equipped that computer with an 1 TB SSD and 32 GB DDR5, at a hugely increased price in comparison with last summer, i.e. the DDR5 modules are more than 3 times more expensive now (thanks to the US companies hoarding memory devices). Even so, the total cost in Europe was equivalent with slightly less than $900 while the same configuration on Newegg was slightly less than $1200.
Q.E.D.
In past years the opposite was true, i.e. computers and related components were cheaper in USA, even if the difference was not so great as it is now in the reverse direction.
Therefore it is clear that the dollar is overvalued, its true value is much less in comparison with the euro than the official exchange rate says. For most non-electronic things, the prices were lower in Europe even before. So the GDP of USA is also not as big as it is claimed.
> To that end, NATO lacks the capacity to meaningfully impact a conflict in the Pacific.
NATO is literally the North Atlantic Treaty Org. Basic map-reading tells you that the Pacific is not the North Atlantic. Sure, securing the Pacific might take a "Pacific Treaty" of regional powers, but we see no signs of that kind of thinking at present from the USA. Bridges are being burned not built.
> Trump is an asshole, but the strategy hasn’t really changed ... Trump hasn’t really changed the plan -- he’s just subtle like a brick to the face
Is this the new talking point? That it's business as usual with an uglier face?
This is rubbish though on multiple dimensions, this is now a kakistocratic and kleptocratic US administration, that is going out of its way to alienate allies .
> America is gonna be well ahead of the rest of the world by the 2040s.
I think you'll find that kleptocrats don't tend to have that "get ahead" effect.
I agree there are strong undercurrents but how can we give Trump 2 any credit when we're annihilating brand America. Hearing Trump speak to Macron about the nobel prize and now he's tweeting out "I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace." We aren't a reliable partner and with the structural issues and real politik anything we try to do now in the pacific will cost substantially more. Alls we needed to do was deepen the partnerships we had and look like a mean bulldog against China.
I don’t know why anyone would still be trying to pull data off the open internet. Too much signal to noise. So much AI influence already baked into the corpus. You are just going to be reinforcing existing bias. I’m more worried about the day Amazon or Hugging Face take down their large data sets.
My biggest hope for Elon’s Mars plan is the chance to create a whole new Calendar system that makes sense. Like honestly. 7 days in a week? Random days per month? Uneven quarters? Who the hell decided to put the leap day in February! Clearly it should be at the beginning/end of the year. The western Calendar is nuts.
Why doesn’t every month have 30 days with the last day of the quarter having 31? Ohh leap year? December 32nd or January 0.
Little bit of both. Pi still uses a sort of unique boot sequence due to it’s heritage. Most devices will have the CPU load the bootloader and then have the OS bring up the GPU. Pi sort of inverts this, having the GPU leading the charge with the CPU held at reset until after the GPU has finished it’s boot sequence.
Once you get into the CPU though the Aarch64 registers become more standardized. You still have drivers and such to worry about and differing memory offsets for the peripherals - but since you have the kernel running it’s easier to kind of poke around until you find it. Pi 5 added someone complexity to this with the RP1 South Bridge which adds another layer of abstraction.
Hopefully that all makes sense. Basically the Pi itself is backwards while everything else should conform. It’s not Arm specific, but how the Pi does things.
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