Maybe, maybe not. It's not unreasonable that these systems cap out at some point, or perhaps fizzle away entirely.
The businesses that create these systems are not profitable and run at a massive historical and go-forward loss.
New data centers required to operate these systems are facing increasing pushback at local levels. New construction is not guaranteed. Energy and power grid constraints exist as well.
Government regulation is way behind. What happens when (if) mass layoffs due to AI occur? How does the population react? Theoretically AI can be regulated out of significant progress, or outright existence for many purposes. At the end of the day, US and other prominent governments make the calls, not corporations.
These inventions all stopped disrupting the world and just became a part of it. The question is whether LLMs are going to just take their quiet place, or profoundly change (or eliminate) humanity in a self-feeding frenzy towards singularity.
Lots of goddamn awesome computers fizzled out. The Amiga being a prime example. Besides you can't just wave your arms in the most vague terms and then deny that survivor bias was ever a thing.
So your argument is that AI is more lika Amiga than computers? I'd say that Amiga wouldn't fizzle out if it wasn't superceded by pc. It very well may be that transformer architecture is going to be superceded by something like jepa or other world models but it doesn't change much.
Survivor bias is always a thing but it's not everything. All surviving things are not equal and neither are all gone things. If there are such things. Some cls technology never dies. There are new games written for 8-bit Atari today.
If you are an employee, the employer has control over how you should do your work. IF you don't like that, transition to being a contractor and sign service agreements where you are going to be paid solely for results not for how you achieve them.
How it reads is that the world has converged on an obviously bad technology. If only you had the chance to control it from top down and you wouldn’t let this mistake happen for you know what’s best for the world. Not only that, it’s double bad because you can’t do anything about it because everyone is under the illusion except you and a few other sensible people. And you would reject the notion that you have agency to change things.
How the above reads is you can't understand anything wider than your personal affairs.
Or you believe that the world can't possibly converge on a bad technology or practice, and get bad outcomes out of it, while much fewer see potential issues and warn about them.
The world fortunately works under a system that is durable to these problems. You can actually start a company that doesn't use AI if you think it runs better that way. This argument obviously doesn't work because
1. you would decline the agency existing to make a new company
2. you might even say that AI does help companies work better, but its bad for people - suddenly its no longer about the lack of competency of AI but rather how good it is
>The world fortunately works under a system that is durable to these problems
The world works under a system that populations have suffered or even whole countries and empires perished because of systemic problems.
If your answer is "but humanity still endured and is alive today", that's a pretty low bar, not to mention moving the goalposts so far they can't even be seen anymore.
>You can actually start a company that doesn't use AI if you think it runs better that way
I can. And it means nothing to the concern of the parent: "For many of us, AI adoption is really an AI mandate". Your solution is "if you don't like your employer demanding you use AI, just start your own company".
Agency doesn't mean do any arbitrary action and there's no risk or downsides.
Will you pay for their expenses to start their own company? Will you personally loan them money? Will you teach them business skills needed to run a company after they've been a regular employee programmer for 2 decades? Will you feed their kids if the company doesn't catch on? Will you find them employment if they have to shut it down and go back to a regular job as a 40 or 50 year old, in this job market, where you can apply for 20 jobs and not even hear back? Oh, and do the same for millions of others, not just your friend or your favorite cousin?
It doesn't matter whether some individual person can make a non-AI company, since the argument was never about the inability to make one.
It was about millions of people pressured to use AI in their jobs whether they like it or not. "Oh, those millions are only pressured because they lack the agency to start their own business" even more out-of-touch that "let them eat cake".
It's the boomer's "pull yourself by the bootstraps" sermon. Like the idea that millions can't find a job because they lack agency and a firm handshake, or that they're in debt because of that latte.
That's the nature of employment relationship. On the flipside, as long as you follow employers rules, you don't bear the responsibility for the results. That's a huge upside that have always balanced out the lack of control over they way you work and your fate for many people.
Even if in the unlikely case UBI gets implemented, there is no way payment will be equal. Why would the rich give up their positions of power? They’ll just get more security and bribe politicians, enough to build private armies and fortresses so the poor and starving can’t touch them, and have no choice but to live out their lives in squalor…we’re seemingly headed that way according to many even without pervasive autonomous machines taking away all work.
Many companies already found a better way - they stopped interviewing. You don't need to interview anyone because there aren't any jobs available.
If there happen to be any open roles typically they are not advertised and filled via internal referral from a senior employee... for a senior candidate. Interview is more of a formality at that point.
Not to rain on anyone's parade but I find it strange how excited and giddy people on HN get for any new X.X model releases. Pumping it straight to the top, clamoring to use it, check and compare benchmarks, bragging about it being your "daily driver"?
Are you people truly this excited about this crap? I mean I guess if you work for Google or Anthropic or whatever I could see it??? Otherwise, are these just bot comments?
You know how the saying goes that you have to pick two out of three: cheap, fast or good? This is all of those. Pretty exciting.
I'll wait for Astra and Grok 4.7 announcements but probably getting at least one Ultra subscription.
Since testing 3.7 on Pro for last two weeks I'm realizing just how long I'm waiting on other models. I've been multitasking to compensate but it's exhausting so I'd rather not.
Gemini Flash is the one I get most excited about, because it's so fast and so good at real-world knowledge, and it's improving so fast - look at how much the benchmarks improved in ~1 month. It's just categorically different than anything else.
Also, I use it every day, and it just got ~10% better at coding, according to the benchmarks. How is that not exciting?
I use Gemini every day and I've noticed any subjective improvement. In many cases it feels worse because it does fewer Google searches than before. As a result I find it hard to get excited about it.
If you used, you would know. There's something addicting seeing the vertigo inducing progression of that technology.
I am a light user so I don't get the shakes when my monthly azure dev credits run out but I would be susceptible to being addicted to it if I was on a subscription with generous usage allowance and random usage counter resets.
Correct. This orange site has evidently gone under AI psychosis especially in model release posts and is overrun by AI bots, paid influencers and even small creeping signs of crypto pumpfun scams [0].
Even making a tiny joke is too much [1] for some.
> They will censor comments like yours and my reply here because we call it out.
Don't bother calling it out, it does not work. There are protected accounts where the guidelines don't apply to them and moderators allow this and ban others who do the same thing. [2]
The businesses that create these systems are not profitable and run at a massive historical and go-forward loss.
New data centers required to operate these systems are facing increasing pushback at local levels. New construction is not guaranteed. Energy and power grid constraints exist as well.
Government regulation is way behind. What happens when (if) mass layoffs due to AI occur? How does the population react? Theoretically AI can be regulated out of significant progress, or outright existence for many purposes. At the end of the day, US and other prominent governments make the calls, not corporations.
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