good post, but I disagree Surival Function is needed for AGI. Why do you think Survival Function is needed?
The item I think you should add is a Mesolimbic System (Reward / Motivation). I think AGI needs motivation to direct its learning and tasks.
Also, I don't think the industry has just been training LLMs with more data to get advancement the last 2 years. RAG / Agents loops / skills / context mgmt are all just early forms a Memory system. An LLM with an updatable working set memory is a lot more capable than just an LLM.
Kids develop video game skills, grandmothers do not. Hypothetically grandmothers develop baking skills, that kids do not (perfectly golden brown cookies). A human intelligence is generally capable of developing video game skills or baking skills, given enough motivation and experience to hone those skills. One test of AGI is if the same system can develop video game skills and baking skills, without having to rebuild the core models... this would demonstrate generalized intelligence.
Trump did this a lot with the legacy media in his first term. He would make inaccurate statements to the media on the topic he wanted to be in the spotlight, and the media would jump to "fact check" him. Guess what, now everyone is talking about illegal immigration, tariffs, or whatever subject Trump thought was to their advantage.
People always need to be reminded, though. It seems to be in human nature to fear bad publicity, and the people who fear it less end up with disproportionate power as a result.
if you can identify where and how prediction markets are wrong, why aren't you applying that and making millions?
> - Prediction markets generally become more accurate as the diversity of the bettor pool grows. The users of polymarket and Kalshi heavily skew towards young men from certain socioeconomic groups, who may be biased towards one or the other outcome.
Citation? If your small population is high IQ, accurate predictors and you diversify to average IQ population, won't the accuracy go down not up?
More seriously, set it up as you would a junior employee with a high quality getting started guide, guardrails, and clear feedback loops that it's doing tasks correctly (otherwise it will just suck). Then delegate tasks to it, start simple and grow in complexity as it demonstrates it does a good job on the simple tasks.
What role it does for you depends on your business, and what is best fit for automation. Purely digital roles with good feedback loops are the ones I focus on.
Keep being cynical and that's the media you'll get.
In the real world, professional media organizations regularly expose corruption. More often than not? No idea. But to pretend they only engage in cover-ups is cynical fatalism.
Surgical masks don't stop you from getting Covid. That was never what they were for: they were to reduce the viral load you exposed others to, between when you got infected and when you noticed that you were infected. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surgical_mask#Function.
Some cloth masks can (when dry) also trap small particulates through electrostatic interactions, although they are less effective as a mechanical filter than surgical masks; and many washing methods destroy this effect.
The distinction is important! The mechanism by which surgical masks prevent you from getting COVID-19 is peer pressure: it's important for people to know this, so they know how to protect themselves. (And there are fitted masks that protect the wearer: there was just a shortage of them, because despite all the warnings we were not prepared for a pandemic.)
The distinction does matter, because by not wearing a mask, instead of indicating that you don't care about your own safety, you're indicating that you don't care about anybody else's.
It was more nuanced than that and importantly, "Anti-masker" as a derogatory statement was about "This person is literally unwilling to do anything at all that doesn't pay off for them personally" because a goddamn mask is such a simple thing to do, and they just couldn't handle it, because it was someone else telling them to do something and some people just cannot function when that happens.
People lost their damn minds because "Hey could you maybe take a single small step to ensure you don't sneeze on produce" was protest worthy.
I do not believe someone saying "Masks made out of T-Shirts don't work well" or "Surgical masks aren't as effective as real N95 masks" are an "Anti-masker".
It was about vice-signalling. All the people who get pissy about masks do plenty of things for their "health" that have zero science behind them.
These people often did other things like hiding or downplaying any symptoms, and choosing to go to events while sick, and were often basically superspreaders.
This was all well understood like 25 years ago when WoW did that blood plague thing and people put effort into spreading it as much as possible. We've seen this with other diseases including ones that have no real controversy or political angle. Some people are just that insistent about doing everything they can to make the world a worse place.
The item I think you should add is a Mesolimbic System (Reward / Motivation). I think AGI needs motivation to direct its learning and tasks.
Also, I don't think the industry has just been training LLMs with more data to get advancement the last 2 years. RAG / Agents loops / skills / context mgmt are all just early forms a Memory system. An LLM with an updatable working set memory is a lot more capable than just an LLM.
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