It's been 4 years. Nothing meaningful.

Has your job not be completely changed? Have you not noticed a worse job market?

I'm not sure I'd call that "meaningful" in the sense of "trillions of dollars and datacenters built all over the place" meaningful. Yes, I can now tell Claude to build a feature and it often does an okay job. I can ship faster. I can't tell you that it's worth spending the true cost of AI for that however. What'll be nice is 5 years of data showing that companies are raking in more money because they shipped more features. We haven't seen that yet.

Now, if Claude starts synthesizing more drugs that can help those with diseases (like OpenAI has just done) we might be trending in the right direction. For now, all I see is squirrels water-skiing. And while that's great... it's not meaningful.

there's a popular misconception that AI is so extremely costly that when the world finally comes to terms with it, we will stop using AI and things will die down. i'm sorry to burst your bubble: this won't happen.

the inference cost of AI has been dropping ~5x over every 6 months. AI today is around 100x cheaper than 2 years ago. it will continue to get cheap.

> AI today is around 100x cheaper than 2 years ago. it will continue to get cheap.

2 y.o model is probably 100x cheaper, but model size and requirements are also growing proportionally.

2 years ago, thinking was an optional, nowadays people use Opus with high effort almost by default.

That doesn't cause the amount that's already been spent to simply disappear. To recoup, they're going to need to sell a LOT of subscriptions. In about 3 years, we'll need to upgrade the GPUs that we use - if we're still chasing frontier models. That cost remains to be seen. There's a ton of unknowns here.

I don't have a bubble to burst.

My job hasn’t completely changed. It’s changed, but fundamentally I solve problems. Sometimes LLMs help me do that now.

The job market sucks, but there are so many confounding factors: pandemic over hiring, the loss of ZIRP, an economy that would be recession if it weren’t for data center investment, and may be in recession soon even with it.

This industry has been in down cycles before. It’s just been a while. So far it feels like a down cycle, not the sky falling.

It’s not clear what the future will hold, but I’m 100% sure it won’t evolve the way Anthropic predicts. Both because they have strong biases and because there's just no way to predict how this technology will play out. Humans are, if anything, remarkably adaptable.

I started my professional career in tech in the early 1990s. At that time, I sat in a chair with a keyboard and a screen to do my work. In 2026, I still work that way. So fundamentally how I work has not changed. Well, now I have two screens.

IPos this year meaningful AF

It is 3 years later and these AIs have not produced anything meaningful.

For one, there are frequently examples posted to HN where LLM coding agents have been used to help people complete projects which otherwise wouldn't have been done. You're taking a really strict view of 'meaningful' if you think LLM coding agents are incapable of writing code.

For another, the case mentioned in this post is quite specific. It's more useful to ask "ok, so they can't design circuit boards; what can AI do?"

Open Ai desperate for cash putting out all these stupid fear tactics.

METR is an independent nonprofit that accepts no donations from labs or employees of labs

all of the frontier model companies give METR huge torrents of free tokens

I mean open Ai

>HN disbelief syndrome: Any evidence of scary AI capabilities are made up for PR

What justification do you have that this is made up?

Well, the man in charge of OpenAI is a notorious pathological liar. Is that not enough in and of itself to cast doubt on claims like this?

For this to be a lie, it wouldn't just be Sam Altman lying, it requires the entirely of OpenAI and METR to also be in on it. Do you think they would all fabricate an incident, staking a huge portion of their reputation on it, so they could spook people? What is the incentive, there are way more straightforward ways to lie about AI capabilities than a complex loss of control incident which now makes them liable to damages against huggingface.

Humans forcing to create life while despising all the life that already is; and this they call intelligence.

Concerned about apple. First late to Ai, having to surrender to google and now a hit to their hardware. Very unfortunate for apple customers.

This sounds like an Ad, why would you tell the world about this? Too coincidential.

claude ads hot off the presses.

The amount of pure conspiratorial thinking will never cease to amaze me.