But Trump _was_ president when it was $10, and now he is not president it is more than that. People are going to make that connection even in the absense of a ten point pizza price plan or whatever and are going to think that they will be better off with him.
>> are going to think that they will be better off with him.
This is what I thought, too. So it will be their fault when they suddenly find out that not only prices didn't go down, but everything is a way expensive than before! And as a bonus, their rights were stripped away.
From that PoV, liberals are in much better position now than those who votes for trump. at least they don't have any illusions on what's coming next.
Keep in mind that the left has been saying that the right has been voting against their own best interests for decades. I doubt that will change, especially if the apparent realignment along "class" lines turns out to be sustained.
Past performance is mixed: Trump 45 used mostly the carrot with the North Koreans, but mostly the stick with the Iranians and Chinese. I think it's pretty clear that Ukraine aid will decrease, but I'm not sure how much carrot vs stick will be applied to Russia.
The result is a combination of all these factors and many others, including racism, misogyny, and a desire to return to a time when groceries were cheap. Next summer, the recession will come as a great surprise to those who expected to be better off under Trump
A lot of variables and uncertainty. You have to remember we live in a bubble of people ultra-focused and attached to the news. Many others aren't as focused yet. As we get closer and election season is the top story of the news cycle, I expect polling to shake out in a different direction.
To help illustrate: the election is 10 months away. 10 months ago was February 27th. Back then, there was prominent argument and speculation that Ron DeSantis was the future of the Republican Party. Look at his polling now.
1) Biden will preside over a resilient and growing economy and a long list of legislative accomplishments, many of which were promised by Trump and were never enacted.
2) Abortion rights will be a big part of the election cycle and 60%+ of Americans oppose the Dobbs ruling. Trump has made it clear that he takes credit for Dobbs.
3) Polls (with the caveat that I believe they are flawed currently) suggest conviction switches a non-trivial number of Trump-friendly voters into the undecided or Biden column.
4) Overall poll toplines are currently flawed, many only use registered voter screens, and seem to overstate the number of 2020 non-voters that will vote in 2024. In reality overall turnout will be much lower in 2024. Additionally, about 50% of voters appear to be in denial that the matchup will be Biden vs. Trump.
5) Trump seems to think he has this in the bag [0] and will make even more extreme and reckless statements as the election cycle goes on.
Never, in just 2-3 months we will have much, much bigger problems