Nvidia already seems to be pivoting to "Local inferencing" with stuff like RTX Spark laptops.
The problem is that local inference machines won't allow anywhere close to their current margins or gross sales figures. At the same time, the huge overbuild of GPUs is going to crash server sales and prices for around a half-decade as companies try to avoid hardware upgrades or buy cheap, used equipment to save costs.
I think Nvidia will survive, but they'll be back to something like a 1T (or lower) valuation.
Nvidia has hordes of raucous gamers on the prowl waiting to tear their chips out of their hands the moment hyperscaler demand falters; plus, China has made sure there will always be plenty of open models to run for hobbyists and neoclouds, even if training compute were to drop off a cliff. They'll be just fine.
I want to see the number of gamers that tear the chips from the dead hands of hyperscalers to make up for the implosion of that market.
If I had to guess, half of humanity does not have interest in dedicated gaming chips.
Memory, that's another story.
The gpus will be too expensive and a lot of them are not even close to useable for gaming. Any consumer gpus maybe but I suspect that nvidia will be able to pivot more quickly producing consumer gpus again.
The market for video game hardware is absolutely puny in comparison to the datacenter GPU boom.
I saw it put quite well in a comment on reddit:
> In 2020, the gaming segment was 47% of revenue at around 8 billion. Today it's doubled to 16 billion, or 7% of revenue. That's right, data center went from 6 billion 2020 to around 198 billion today.
Even if gaming revenue doubles again when the AI bubble pops, their total revenue will still drop by something like 80%. I'm neither smart nor dumb enough to be confident about whether that's something Nvidia can survive.
I think Nvidia surviving is pretty certain. They are not particularly leveraged to my understanding and their commitments are for their own products. Debt is at 12,34 billion so not that much even at their gaming revenue comparison.
Now their market cap is most likely destroyed for forever... Still I little doubts about them continuing to exist.
Totally agree. For a lot of tradefolks maps seem to be the actually more important location. Still Google obviously but it's less slopified in comparison to search. For now at least.
well there are just 2 sources for website profits:
1. money from advertisements (from views, visits): you need to be on google search results at the bear minimum.
2. money from non-advertisements, mostly-offline (eg. you sell preminum stuff/service): you CAN hand out pamphlets to your service website IF your ROI per visit is so good to be true...
but even in the 2nd case, it really helps to be on the google's search result
No, the point is that a general-ish ability to draw good SVGs is a useful ability in itself. People need SVGs for all sorts of purposes, and if AI can generate one for them, that's mostly useful (discussions about art and employment etc notwithstanding).
That said, I think this would correlate relatively little with general programming ability. They're not unrelated, of course, but being able to generate code that paints an accurate + esthetically pleasing image is quite different from generating code that achieves a non-spatial goal.
Yeah, if you want to generate an aesthetically pleasing SVG, you'd be better off asking a pixel-based image-generation model for "vector art" and then deconstructing it into an equivalent SVG with something like LayerPeeler. https://layerpeeler.github.io/
These are rectangles with some fill and strokes, textboxes lines and arrows. If the text has already been written, and the author has a clear idea of the flow all it takes are some a dozen or so points and click, and setting a couple of fills, then copy pastes, and finally some resizes, selects and moves.
This design is trivial. I admit it would be hard to achieve in Word (or at least for me because I don’t know how to make a diagram in Word any more) but Figma and Inkascape are made to do these things, and have optimized UI for that (personally I would have just used mermaid though).
I think you may have lost your faith in human capabilities just a little bit if you think drawing stuff like this takes any time or effort at all. Compared to designing and architecturing the system, drawing the diagram is trivial. Now I know that my parent did neither but it seems like they vibe-coded the whole thing. I’m sure they will end up with a fun little toy from the whole endeavor they can play with for 2 weeks before abandoning. Maybe the author will even feel bad about the carbon footprint of this whole exercise and buy some carbon offsets to make up for it.
I am glad you get to have fun while people you will never meet and live in Sweden or Virginia have to suffer higher electricity prices. But we all get to enjoy the warmer climate together. But at least you can enjoy your self having the plagiarizer build you a single use toy that only took the carbon footprint of entire nations to create.
AI consumed around 0.5% of the world’s electricity in 2025[1]
Where I'm from data centers help the renewable mix by subsidizing transmission from other geographic zones. I'm actually improving the environment by using it.
Agree directionally - even back in sonnet 3.5 days, I was helping some friends by showing them how to create intermediate representations for SVG building blocks mapping to parametrizable functions that can be used to make interactive SVG-rendered visualizations for various medical needs.
hmm ok nope