There are no clear details about what DOGE will alter. All the information we have so far amounts to outrage-bait one-liners. Where and how are they deciding to make cuts, and which agencies are they planning to change? Cutting is not intrinsically a good or bad idea, but everything I’ve read about this so far makes DOGE seem anti-intellectual.
You say this as if Trump will also not be in control of both sides of Congress. All it takes to make this a department of the government is a vote in Congress.
And most of the members of congress (all of the house, 1/3 of the senate)will be up for election in 2 years. Let’s see if they are up for cutting social security and medicare when they have to face the voters just two years later.
Let’s break this down. Payments on the debt (10% of budget) are already off the table. SS, Health Insurance (Medicare, Medicaid, ACA, etc) and defense represent about 58% of the budget. If we eliminate everything else, we are going after things like welfare, the VA, and veterans benefits, as well as subsidies to a variety of businesses. Bottom line, even if there wasn’t an economic impact, there will be some very pissed-off powerful constituents.
At the end of the day, this whole process shows that Musk and Ramaswamy are clowns.
Unless I have missed something (always a real possibility to be fair) there are also no clear details about what DOGE is, what its powers or lack thereof are, what its staffing is, or what its actual processes will be.
We’ll find out more when the actual Trump administration starts I guess, but so far it seems like a broad concept that two guys can use for tweets.
> there are also no clear details about what DOGE is, what its powers or lack thereof are
It's (edit: going to be after Innauguration Day) a Presidential Task Force
Presidential Task Forces have zero power, as they can only give recommendations.
All this hyperventilating over DOGE is distracting from actual issues to worry about - like the upcoming showdown between Senate GOP Leadership and the Executive Branch over a number of confirmations.
>All this hyperventilating over DOGE is distracting from actual issues to worry about
It's not hyperventilating. It may start as a task force but it can easily and quickly be upgraded to a full-on department of the federal government by Congress.
> it can easily and quickly be upgraded to a full-on department
It cannot easily be converted. The house margin is razor thin now that Gaetz and Stefanik gave up their seats for nominations, and filibuster-able.
And Senate leadership is status quo GOP with Sen Thune as Senate Majorty leader, and his allies Grassley and Cornyn, as well as shakey Senators like Collin and Murkowski reducing that majority, and the Senate is still filibuster-able as well.
And given the amount of controversy over a number of Secretary choices, it'll take 6-9 months alone just to go through the Senate Confirmation backlog.
Where were you for the last 8 years? If there's one thing the GOP is great at, it's coalescing around votes. Even with the thin margins, there are ways for them to achieve their goals quickly. I think you're not giving them enough credit here...
It is only the Senate which has the filibuster, and it merely exists as a Senate rule. It can be removed with a simple majority vote, though I believe rule changes must occur at the beginning of the new Congress.
That may be a moot point with regard to cabinet positions should the incoming Republican Senate go along with Trump's request for recess appointments, though.
> It is only the Senate which has the filibuster, and it merely exists as a Senate rule. It can be removed with a simple majority vote, though I believe rule changes must occur at the beginning of the new Congress.
Rule changes can occur any time, but except for the initial adoption of the rules by a majority vote by each House at the opening of each Congress are, themselves, subject to the rules adopted by that House for that Congress, which may impose additional process.
House can de facto filibuster in the sense that a 3 rep majority will inevitably lead to clashes internally, as every rep in the GOP absolutely will use this as an excuse to get concessions. This happened everytime this happens.
> It can be removed with a simple majority vote
It absolutely can, but both sides steer away from doing so due to situations like this - either party inevitably becomes the minority as some point in the Senate, so Senate leadership in both parties prefer to maintain it.
> That may be a moot point with regard to cabinet positions should the incoming Republican Senate go along with Trump's request for recess appointments, though
And that's my point. With Thune as Senate majority leader, Recess Appointments are basically moot.
The whole point of Recess Appointments is to undermine the power of the Senate, which much of the Senate obviously opposes.
Well, its a department that literally does not exist yet because the regime that wants to build it isn't in power yet. So, maybe have a bit of patience before breaking out the name-calling.
I think DOGE does exist, it just is a non-government entity advising the incoming administration with a deceptive name that makes it sound like a government agency rather than a privileged private lobbying group.
Most of them aren't named like government entities, given a verified-government-entity greycheck on Twitter, have their leadership announced by the incoming President elect, recruit on the explicit premise of being part of Administration policy, and have public confusion as to whether they are a government department or something else.
You’ve listed indicators that suggests it has a higher probability of becoming a formalized office of some kind, higher likelihood that key decision makers truly believe in establishing it, etc.
> And then I tried gpt-3.5-turbo-instruct. This is a closed OpenAI model, so details are very murky.
How do you know it didn't just write a script that uses a chess engine and then execute the script? That IMO is the easiest explanation.
Also, I looked at the gpt-3.5-turbo-instruct example victory. One side played with 70% accuracy and the other was 77%. IMO that's not on par with 27XX ELO.
It isn't solved but the evaluation (which side is better, by how much, and which moves are best) of a strong engine is - for all practical purposes - an answer to every chess position you can pose to it. This makes it easy to gauge improvement and benchmark against other systems compared to some other problems.
Anyone have a technical writeup of the actual bug? I'm trying to explain how this could happen to people who think this is related to AI or cyber attacks.
What happened to the QA testing, staggered rollouts, feature flags, etc.? It's really this easy to cause a boot loop?
To me, BSOD indicates kernel level errors, which I assume Crowdstrike would be able to cause because it has root access due to being a security application. And because it's boot-looping, there's not a way to automatically push out updates?
I don't have a technical writeup to offer, but your assessment around the BSOD seems correct enough. Without having an affected machine but knowing how NT loads drivers like this, I'd hazard a guess that the OS likely isn't even getting to the point where smss.exe starts before the kernel bugchecks. This means no userspace, which almost certainly means no hope of remotely remediating the problem.
Doesn’t make much sense for Hikaru to cheat. He competes over the board where it’s much harder to cheat, and he makes most of his money through streaming, not through competition results.
The size of his streaming audience is largely predicated on his perceived skill though. So, he may hypothetically feel pressure to cheat in order to impress his audience.
I'm not sure that translates very linearly. Most of the chess YouTube "stars" are not even GMs. Most of the viewers are hardly good players, so what you can learn from an IM is astronomical. Charisma and good at teaching are much better skills than a 1000 ELO difference imo. To your point, beating Magnus might drag a lot of people to his stream.
They watch Hikaru because he is fun while he plays and wins.
Offline, he is #4 is slow chess and #1 in Blitz.
He's not facing strong challenges on Titled Tuesday, and (like all top players) he is so good that there simply aren't enough players and data to make the empirical Elo scale work for assessing his win probabilities.
It kind of depends on the chassis' structure rather than weight. That being said the only thing more weight accomplishes is the impact is worse for anyone that isn't you.
It is better for the car occupants to be in a heavier car. IIRC, US road deaths of people outside the car have doubled over the last ~20Y because of the rise of the SUV and its ilk. European safety rules take into account people outside the car in the notion of 'safety'; I don't think that US safety rules do.
I would love if when buying an iPhone I was able to specify an entire class of apps that I could not install. For example, I could be banned at an OS level from a curated suite of social media apps. They could also make each app report the domains that it connects to so that the ban could continue at a DNS level. Apple is in a great place to do this because of their walled garden App Store model and withholding of root access from users. To undo it you would have to go into a store to use their proprietary software to change the type of apps you're allowed to install.
Pragmatically, we need way more investment in environmental engineering and policies that put conservation first.
Since collectively we can't be bothered because we all need the newest electric vehicle, you can also accept that mass extinction is a byproduct of humanity.
