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The expected value of both strategies is to have 1 success, but they have different variance. The first strategy has variance of 0.99, and the second strategy has variance 0. The chance of n out of 100 hits with the first strategy is: binomial(100,n) x 0.01^n x 0.99^(100-n)

edit: asterisks as multiplication signs => italics



Right, but variance doesn't matter if you just repeat the scam tomorrow.




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