Abandoning general purpose computing is too crazy, as it amounts to throwing away software. The anonymous internet is a dead-man walking, but silicon valley is as complicit in this as the government will be.
However, software engineering will change into a much more regulated environment. Writing software for the web will eventually become like writing software for the space shuttle: slow, rigorous and very expensive.
It will also kill the hacker culture, as hacking together a piece of software will become like hacking together a bridge: illegal.
> However, software engineering will change into a much more regulated environment. Writing software for the web will eventually become like writing software for the space shuttle: slow, rigorous and very expensive.
Or, it could bifurcate. Look at aviation. If you want to fly an airplane in the US, it needs to be something that has been approved by the government down to each nut, bolt and rivet. All onboard systems (mechanical, electrical, software) and every vendor providing them have undergone expensive and rigorous government certification, and you have documents showing it. You can't so much as change out a switch in the cockpit without going through an official approved service provider! But there's a totally separate "experimental" category carved out for people who want to build their own airplanes, where the rules are much more lax and there's far less oversight. As long as you keep good records and abide be some basic rules, you can pretty much build and fly whatever the hell you want. The major operating limitation is that you can't fly one for hire or carry people for compensation. By some great miracle, these separate, parallel tracks, certificated and experimental, co-exist successfully and planes aren't falling from the sky.
It may end up this way for computing: A "serious software" regime for most consumer- and business-purchased products, subject to slow, rigorous, expensive regulation, and a parallel "hobbyist" track for at-home, non-commercial hacking and making where anything goes.
IANAL but I assume that if I purchased a tract of land and built a bridge on it, I could create it as I please, given that I would be liable for damages should the bridge break and harm somebody on my property, not unlike a slip-and-fall.
I for one would prefer most vital software to be developed slowly and methodically. We insist on strict standards for our bridges and roads - why don't we do the same for our information infrastructure?
I would prefer software infrastructure be developed rigorously as well, as I think would most people. But that will lead to regulations or at best, expensive insurance company mandated standards.
But before we celebrate its demise: the side effect will also be the same ones seen in the civil engineering world: creative ideas take decades to come into existence. As you mentioned in your other comment, there was a time when railroad building was exciting, and in that time, people died doing exciting engineering. Civil engineering tools are now orders of magnitude better than they were years ago, but there hasn't been an explosion in creative structures, even at the lowest level.
I also think many of the perks (ie: salary) of the software engineering industry are intimately related to the 'move fast and break things' culture. When that leaves the industry, it may be less of a good riddance than you think.
This may be my perspective as an outsider though, I don't work in software. But I have considered making the jump to software engineering, because 'moving fast and break things' sounds fun.
Also agreed, but I don't think the "boringification" of civil engineering is all that bad either. I met a civil engineer recently. He is a mundane but serious professional. He has no patience for the shiny objects that the real estate developers try to distract other people with. Codes are upheld and enforced.
It's easy to grumble about regulations until their reasons are forgotten. Then they get repealed and the problems come back. The mortgage crisis is a prime example.
I don't think this is such a bad future for software either. Much of my job writing software for higher education involves adhering to complex policies. These policies are necessary to remain FERPA/HIPAA compliant, which are necessary for their own reasons. Playing fast and loose is taking out a debt for an uncertain future.
The "boringification" of computers will bring us back to the 70s.
If we have to prove _everything_ on your computer, from your calculator or Pokemon, how much do you think a license of windows will cost? $250,000?
Linux/FreeBSD/OpenBSD/Minix will be dead (no one to sponsor certification and then put it in the public).
Crazy "best-practices" (change passwords every couple days, password must include symbols, letters, numbers, upper-case and lower-case in a random order, but be no shorter or longer than eight characters)
Must have a full team of lawyers to prove that everything done fit the letter of the law, and that any hacks are not your responsibility
"Shinyness" is what allows you to have free VSCode and Atom.
Sure, I miss the 70s when you could get a text editor measured in bytes (but, btw, electron is probably more secure than 70s unix) but I definitely like the cost/convenience of modern software.
> IANAL but I assume that if I purchased a tract of land and built a bridge on it, I could create it as I please, given that I would be liable for damages should the bridge break and harm somebody on my property, not unlike a slip-and-fall.
Depends on where you buy your land, most likely. If you buy in an unincorporated territory, you might get away with whatever if there are no county or state regulations. If you're buying in a city/town/village, you can expect that basically any construction project will be subject to code requirements and permitting. To get permitted in such a situation would typically require an appropriately engineered design with signoff from a civil PE.
I wonder what's the programming equivalent of interior designer[1] or nail technician[2] and how much time until one will be required to spend a few thousand bucks and a couple of years in some bootcamp to be allowed to publish them.
> However, software engineering will change into a much more regulated environment. Writing software for the web will eventually become like writing software for the space shuttle: slow, rigorous and very expensive.
I wouldn't be totally pessimistic like this. Increases in regulation and quality standards will happen along with increases in programmer productivity as tools further improve. We're still living in the stone age of programming languages and system infrastructure.
Agreed. People usually aren't aware that the 19th century was a sprawling graveyard of industrial accidents and train derailments, often because the regulations introduced as a result of these tragedies have turned them into a distant memory for an older generation and a "grandpa story" as far as young-uns are concerned.
However, software engineering will change into a much more regulated environment. Writing software for the web will eventually become like writing software for the space shuttle: slow, rigorous and very expensive.
It will also kill the hacker culture, as hacking together a piece of software will become like hacking together a bridge: illegal.