You mention the inaccurate exercise calorie burn calculators, but then state that jogging one mile burns 100 kcal. For most people, jogging one mile does not burn anywhere close to 100 kcal.
Calorie burn rates for untrained to semi-trained people fall in the 1-4 kcal/minute range. For trained individuals, burn rates can go as high as 15-20 kcal/minute during interval training. For reference, elite-level long-distance endurance racers (marathoners, long-course triathletes) typically burn about 3 kcal/minute.
Hmmm... You made me break out the calculator. I'm thinking 150 w is probably about right for the effort for a 10 minute mile. 150 wH is roughtly 130 kcal. So divided by 6 that gives just over 20 kcal. So you are right!
It shows you how easy it is to fall into the trap of repeating things you've heard :-P
A 156 lb subject burns 112.5 kcal/mile running a 10 minute mile. But that's gross calories. A random BMR calculator (5'8" male, 156 lbs, 45 y/o i.e. myself + 10 lbs) gives ~ 1600 kcal/day, which is 1.1 kcal/minute, or 11 kcal in 10 minutes. So that's a net kcal burn of pretty close to 100 kcal/mile.
What am I missing?
(Aside, I ran over 3300 miles last year and did not lose weight; I don't doubt the futility of trying to lose weight through exercise alone.)
I think the difference is the amount of energy that you burn directly from the running and the amount of energy that you burn due to increased metabolism/repairing your body due to the exercise. The first is not going to be that different between people, but the second could possibly be quite variable. I spent a bit of time trying to find primary sources for the justification of these numbers and I couldn't find anything easily. I don't doubt they exist, but I've been burned enough times through sloppy interpretations of scientific papers that it probably makes sense to take a close look before I shoot off my mouth again ;-)
I suppose either way, the original point stands -- it's incredibly easy to eat your way out of progress made with exercise.
Calorie burn rates for untrained to semi-trained people fall in the 1-4 kcal/minute range. For trained individuals, burn rates can go as high as 15-20 kcal/minute during interval training. For reference, elite-level long-distance endurance racers (marathoners, long-course triathletes) typically burn about 3 kcal/minute.