I really doubt the other car companies will let that happen. Either they'll work out the battery and motor tech themselves OR they'll push for hydrogen. The automotive industry isn't going to let a company like Tesla bully them around.
Audi already had to scrap one of their EV models, because its technology was so far behind Tesla's by the time it was ready to hit the market.
Traditional car makers are just extremely slow to adjust, because they have never faced any real disruption. They've effectively been selling the same product for decades with only some marginal and incremental improvements. Tesla, on the other hand, is using the SV model of doing business: First create an MVP, then iterate rapidly until you have something that is so good, it can steamroll the market. When Tesla was founded, traditional car makers laughed at them, claiming they would never be able to even build a proper car. These comments are eerily similar to what the Palm CEO had to say about Apple and the IPhone ten years ago: That a couple of computer people from SV would never be able to build a proper phone.
Traditional car companies are entirely unprepared to deal with the kind disruption that is coming to their market. And that does not only concern EVs but also self-driving cars and the sharing economy. I don't think they can stop Tesla. The real question is how much of their business they will be able to save.
I think the term you're looking for is "history" [1] as in, "tech people tend to adopt a historical view of older companies." With extremely few exceptions, the older a company gets the more obsolete it becomes [2].
To be honest, I'll be surprised if Tesla is producing EVs at that rate too... They have 3 models of cars. I'm not even sure there is a market for 500k/year of those three models. Even expanding that to 4 models (Y) would still leave those numbers hard to hit.
Elon rarely makes categorical statements about future goals, usually throwing in a few weasel words, or "we project" or "we plan", but during Tesla's last earnings call he said:
“What people should absolutely have zero concern about, and I mean 0, is that Tesla will achieve a 10,000 unit production week by the end of next year. […] I think people should really not have any concerns that we won’t reach that outcome from a production rate.”
And I have no doubt that they will reach a 10000 unit week. And they will probably have that production capacity. But once their backlog of orders has been filled, how many orders will they realistically have per week? I think that is the outstanding question.
And how many of those new cars sold for > $35-40k?
Tesla certainly has a market, but it isn't competing for the same consumers that Honda is. The market Tesla is competing for is significantly smaller than 17M.
The amount of people who can afford any new car is not the same as the number of people who can afford a new Tesla.
I've had my Model 3 reservation since the day they opened... but it's highly unlikely to assume that Tesla can hit those production marks with the (admittedly) limited line up it has.
Across their entire lineup BMW sold 2.4M cars in 2016 (including MINI) [1]. I just don't see them selling 500k/year in the immediate future. Once they add models (the Y, a replacement for the Roadster, and a Truck), then they very easily could blow through that rate. But baby steps... I'd rather see Tesla exceed modest expectations than fail to meet unrealistic ones.
Eh... assuming demand is there. I guess it could be, but price of the car matters, prices of oil matter, politics and lobbyists matter, success of this rollout matter. There's some risks here before you call it "too late".
Also... nissan has an interesting play here. Waiting to see what they do.
Tesla has been around for a while and GM actually has a car that directly competes with Tesla Model 3, and many are coming. Sure Model 3 will be marquee model, but it did not have surprise element of iPhone nor people buy Cars every two years. Even to this day, building EVs with big batteries is not economical or profitable, that may change now, but building EV is not a rocket science. Every major Auto manufacturer has the know-how, they may be constrained by the supply-chain in the future. With low gas prices, people want SUVs not Sedans, if Model 3 was economic SUV, Tesla would have voraciously eaten couple of Car companies, its a Car and so the rest of the ICE world, will survive them!
