None of them seem to account for human spite. After a certain point survivors might just try and seal up the bunker entrances or cave in a bunker entirely, or at least use the possibility as a bluff.
That seems like a perfectly reasonable angle of attack, but the number of assumptions in play make the whole thing meaningless.
My original point was only to highlight that certain people really are almost hilariously over prepared for just about any eventuality, and any assumptions made should probably take this into account. I wasn't suggesting they were right, or wrong.
