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Medicine and Statistics Don't Mix (nytimes.com)
5 points by getp on April 10, 2008 | hide | past | favorite | 2 comments


This is a remarkably common fallacy when interpreting false positives, false negatives, or sensitivity/specificity data. It's a shame Bayesian statistics isn't more commonly known as it's a good way to avoid the misconception.

Simply put: extraordinary claims demand extraordinary support.

If the prevalence of PGD is very low, you need a great deal of weak tests showing positive results or a hypothetical extremely sensitive and specific test showing positive results. Both routes are difficult and expensive.


really?




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