Let's not go overboard with the criticism. It's a standard phrase expressing a probability, because it's impossible to predict with absolute certainty.
(I have my doubts regarding that probability, but that's a different matter)
Yes, "likely" is expressing a probability. Substitute "unlikely" into their sentence and it would still be expressing a probability, except it would be a believable one.
I stand by my original comment. There's nothing overboard about it, and nothing demanding absolute certainty.
(I have my doubts regarding that probability, but that's a different matter)