I don't know these online email readers very well, but wasn't there another post recently that said that GMail has only a very small percentage of users? So I am surprised that GMail integration killed Kiko. Isn't there an email service out there where you could plug in things? That used to be the trend among web applications, to provide a Web Service/API so that it could be extended?
You know I think that this means that people should probably think twice before basing a startup on a feature or technology that Google could easily implement. By implement, I mean either have their engineers hack out, or buy. To assume that they will buy it from you is foolish by the way. I'm looking at you two GUBA and Revver, but I may as well be talking about every web 2.0 startup I've had the misfortune of having to look at in the past 12 months.
Are there ANY original thinkers out there? Where are you at? Money is waiting for you.
I would like, for once, for three kids to come up to me and say that they have World of Warcraft or Second Life running with full 3D hardware acceleration inside of the browser. WITHOUT A GAD BLESSED PLUGIN OR SECURITY WARNING!!! This would be something compelling that is difficult to implement. It is also something that would take people more than 2 weeks to duplicate.
Think of it this way, how many people get rich anymore by writing say, IDE's? None, because we all use what Microsoft, Adobe, or Eclipse gives us, for FREE? The same thing will happen very soon with social networking, it will be included with your hosting. Probably by leveraging open source. So everyone will be able to start a story telling site with photo uploading for illustration and social features. However, I think it will be more difficult for someone to make a web based Joost with television recording and social features. So if you can, your asking price just went WAY up kid.
The things I have outlined are hard, and that is the point. If I invest in something, I don't want to hear about 35 other startups doing the exact same thing.
I'm not just talking about the web 2.0 people here. You would not believe the number of 'Second Life' knockoffs that are about to hit the market. They all expect that 3 to 30 million people will download and install their plugin, or click 'Yes' on their security warning. You know, the one to give this startup you never heard of FULL access to your machine. That's OK though they tell me, because they only need to get the early adopters to spread the word. The TECH SAVVY early adopters. Yeah, you heard me right, the ones MOST likely to know NOT to give a startup they've never heard of full access to their machines!
If ANYONE can find a tech startup that doesn't infringe copyrights and actually has technology that would take a minute to develop, I think I would fall over from shock.
Sorry about this rant. Just in the office on a Sunday looking at knockoff after knockoff. But hey, I just work for consultants for investors, it's not my money. It is frustrating that no one wants to listen to the minority report though.
'... I would like, for once, for three kids to come up to me and say that they have World of Warcraft or Second Life running with full 3D hardware acceleration inside of the browser ... WITHOUT A GAD BLESSED PLUGIN ...'
gne or game never ending did just that (but it still required a plugin). The problem is twofold. Browsers are sandboxed, to get performance for 3D requires access to hardware and what makes money might not be what you first think of. (thats three).
Take for instance flickr. They started off with gne, then the front end team did about 5 different apps before they realised allowing people upload & share photos.
'... Are there ANY original thinkers out there? Where are you at? ...'
They are about. Maybe that's a good news.yc question?
"I would like, for once, for three kids to come up to me and say that they have World of Warcraft or Second Life running with full 3D hardware acceleration inside of the browser."
That's impossible, period. The most you could perhaps hope for is to donate some plugin to Mozilla and hope they'll bundle it with future versions of their browser. I think they always ship an SVG plugin (not sure if that would allow for hardware accelerated graphics), but does Internet Explorer support SVG?
Yeah, I'll get right on that. I bet a OpenGL engine will just _fly_ in JavaScript. And of course, all browsers give the JS runtime full access to the video hardware.
Google's a big company with lots of brilliant people. It's hard to imagine any feature or technology they couldn't easily implement. For the rest of us, hopefully those smart people turn into (or remain) researchers don't start churning out products. Of course, that doesn't seem likely.
It does seem like applying technology to social networking is becoming a commodity. Not that there's not more to be done, but there are an aweful lot of me toos and simultaneously similar endeavors. Darwin would be happy.
I think the key to creating value it to look where other's aren't. Once enough smart people and companies are working on a problem, the value you can create by following everyone else is much more deminished. If all the great athletes were trying to become home run hitters, an up and coming athlete would have much better odds looking towards a slightly less popular sport in which to excel.
I think there are too many people trying to hit home runs at social networking. If you have a great (novel) idea, start swinging, if not, look for a different domain to create value, I think your odds will be better.
I think you are right that 3D interfaces are coming up next, but I'm not sure your approach is correct. As others have mentioned here, 3D in a browswer is probably not the way to go. The Croquet Project (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Croquet_project) look like they are on to something... and it's free and open source (I wonder how that will effect all those "about to launch" companies you mention). To have satisfactory 3D you want a local engine that works directly with the hardware (or such functionality integrated directly into the browser). But you seem to be disappointed in these options.
With regards to the low barrier to entry concern. Yeah, I see the same thing which is what has stopped me working on a few of my ideas (a couple of times a decision I regret). I think to a large extent this is due to the ever decreasing development times (open source and development efficiency), and more efficient sharing of ideas (blogs/tagging). This seems to be a structural change that will only get worse.
Original thinking definitely creates more value, but I'm not sure it's necessarily creates a higher barrier to entry. While everyone else is running the marathon, take the short cut (look where they aren't). It doesn't matter if you don't have a high barrier as long as you shock everyone with what you produce. It's winning the race that counts (launching a successful company), not trying to run faster than everyone else.
"Think of it this way, how many people get rich anymore by writing say, IDE's? None, because we all use what Microsoft, Adobe, or Eclipse gives us, for FREE"
So how do you explain Dreamweaver's success over Frontpage?
Analyse Dreamweaver's cost/profit ratio. Remember, Dreamweaver is boxed and sold at retail. The advent of AJAX gave Dreamweaver a little more life, since to make an impressive AJAX page requires a ridiculous amount of not very well structured code. Keeping track of not very well structured code is what IDE's are good at, and what Dreamweaver's target audience is bad at. That said, as a percentage of total revenues, Dreamweaver sucks. Check it out for yourself in Adobe's latest quarterly report:
Dreamweaver sales were used to bump up the "Developer Solutions" line of the quarterly report. Notice it is a small percentage. This would not be so bad, until you notice that even the line in the quarterly report marked "Other" is bigger!
Here's some free advice, do not invest in a startup that plans to make a straight IDE play.
"The individual products within the Studio solution also remained solid, with Macromedia Dreamweaver MX standing as the company's largest individual product ... The MX family also continued to receive industry accolades."
http://www.adobe.com/macromedia/ir/macr/news/2004/jul23_q104_results.html
"to make an impressive AJAX page requires a ridiculous amount of not very well structured code"
...
", do not invest in a startup that plans to make a straight IDE play."
Why wouldn't an AJAX IDE make a good investment? People would be queuing up to buy it if making impressive AJAX pages is as hard as you say it is.
very interesting post, and even more interesting "rant" bilbo0s. Its that knockoff are knocking off other knockoff its insane, lol seems inovation is on vacation right now, lets hope it gets back soon.
