> On the other hand, there’s a substantial chance that Democrats and Republicans fail to reach a deal on revisions
There's zero chance the Democrats and Republicans fail to ratify the new USMCA. Neither party particularly wanted to dump NAFTA in the first place, it was almost entirely a Trump push to renegotiate it. USMCA is very slightly better for the US and North America, so it's better than the deal they all supported before that. It's a small group of Democrats posturing with their new control of the house. They understand the cost of letting the trade pact drop and they have no interest in owning that mistake.
What you say is largely accurate, but it's worth noting that the president's ability to unilaterally terminate NATFA is a subject of debate. [1] [2] The short version is that Trump probably does have the authority to formally withdraw, but doing so without Congress's approval would leave the NAFTA Implementation Act in place, making it into a sort of zombie agreement. Certainly Congress will want to avoid things getting that far, and so the new agreement will probably pass. But as today's news demonstrates, negotiations in the Trump era tend to be... unpredictable.
There's zero chance the Democrats and Republicans fail to ratify the new USMCA. Neither party particularly wanted to dump NAFTA in the first place, it was almost entirely a Trump push to renegotiate it. USMCA is very slightly better for the US and North America, so it's better than the deal they all supported before that. It's a small group of Democrats posturing with their new control of the house. They understand the cost of letting the trade pact drop and they have no interest in owning that mistake.