The assumption in the article is the amount of work is a constant. Instead what happens is that a manager has decided how much time it should take (always too little). If you accept that time, then you will go over.
If you push for more time and get it, then the manager will eventually add more scope and you will go over.
The vast majority of the time we see projects go over deadlines because scope was added under the guise of clarifying scope.
Starting with a business value actually works pretty well to enable people to control scope.
We also use actual velocity on tasks to re-forecast daily. That has been the most effective way to get a good date. Over a large number of tasks this works very well.
If you push for more time and get it, then the manager will eventually add more scope and you will go over.
The vast majority of the time we see projects go over deadlines because scope was added under the guise of clarifying scope.
Starting with a business value actually works pretty well to enable people to control scope.
We also use actual velocity on tasks to re-forecast daily. That has been the most effective way to get a good date. Over a large number of tasks this works very well.