"There will never be an Android phone that people line up for like they did for Windows 95 — or like they do today, once or twice a year, for major new products from Apple."
I like Gruber. I think he does some great analysis sometimes. And he loves to call "gotcha" on other peoples' "claim chowder". But his love for Apple gets the better of him sometimes, and I doubt he will call himself on this.
Based on your assumptions, he is arrogant for making such a ridiculous prediction in the first place. He is pretending to know the buying preferences of millions of people along with the performance of every designer in the future that could make an android.
If it came out of anyone else's mouth but John Gruber, no one would care.
Which of my assumptions makes him arrogant for doing anything?
I'm guessing the second one is what you mean.
Let's also assume that anything he believes is true is because he has thought about it and is confident that he is correct.
he is arrogant for making such a ridiculous prediction in the first place. He is pretending to know the buying preferences of millions of people along with the performance of every designer in the future that could make an android.
You suppose that to think about something (note here that I only said that he had thought about it, and considered himself to be right), and be confident in your own mind that you're right, you need to have perfect evidence on every variable. I disagree. On his blog, Gruber acts as a pundit, and that is expected of the material he writes, he's not presenting what he says as scientific fact.
It is that way because fanboys like you vote up everything that comes out of his blog.
His predictions also come true for things coming out of Apple since he is part of their target demographic. Making a claim about Android is out of his area of expertise.
Because unless he's God himself and has perfect information about everything it can't be possible that every SPECULATION he makes turns out to be true?
Agreed on all points with the exception that Guber actually gets it more or less right on that one. Apple products do have a huge emotional appeal to it. The price for which is weirdly, both the cause and effect at the same time. Most people who buy Apple will continue to buy Apple (they are already buying products that are not cheap by any means, so cheaper Android phones won't do much to dampen that enthusiasm).
Fact is that most people won't line up to buy Android and certainly not as many as Apple fans. Does that mean Android won't sell - hell, no. It will only sell more.
Most of the complaints about Android from Apple fans seem to be on the lines of - "hey it is imperfect and a lesser phone but why does it still sell?" For the Android fan club it seems to be a case of itching to see Apple in trouble.
People seem to forget a very basic fact: it is just a phone :)
Hey, I am not setting any goalposts here. Also, using people-lining-up-at-stores as a metric is useful only as a measure of passion/lust you feel for the device/brand. Does not serve any other purpose, IMHO.
I am an Android user with a Galaxy GTI9000 and pretty happy with it. So it is not like I am batting for Apple either.
To summarize: Apple has a passionate user base, Android may not have an user base that is passionate to the same extent. In any case, long lines outside stores don't amount to much - the Palm Pre is a good pointer in that direction.
I'm not sure the original goalpost was at "nowhere in the world will even one single line be formed of people wanting to buy an Android phone".
I think it was at "people won't line up for an Android phone", which is a more general statement, which is still true. He's talking about things that tend to happen, not claiming that it will never EVER EVER EVER happen even ONCE.
Nobody's putting words into Gruber's mouth, he said "there will never be an Android phone that people line up for like they did for Windows 95". Taking it down a notch from there he meant "there will never be an Android phone that people feel extremely passionate about".
People lined up outside my local Sprint store to get the Evo 4G, but it was nowhere near what you would see at an Apple or AT&T store on iPhone release day. It's hard to measure passion for Android phones because on one hand there is the hardware, and the other is the Android platform. Aside from the Evo with a front-facing camera and 4G, or the Moment with a slide out keyboard, or the Droidx with a 4.5" screen, and a few other stand-outs, most Android phones are pretty vanilla hardware-wise. Android as a platform is great because it is free and open source, and has a lot of apps, but it is rough around the edges compared to iOS. It is easy to see why people are passionate about iPhone, because the hardware is amazing and the OS is polished. I love my Evo 4G, but I wouldn't love other Android phones like the Hero that are just generic Android phones.
That's because there are more Radioshack and Best Buys in a city than there are iPhones. I am pretty sure The Evo sold out for several day after launch.
It's not just a phone, it's a classic case of people's need to separate themselves into groups (I am an x user, he is an y user) and then battle it out against those who pose a threat to our tribe, and to say negative things about those who are outsiders, while saying positive things about our fellow tribesmen.
It's the same thing that happens with football teams, rival schools, those who insist "in America, we speak English", etc.
In some cases, there is a legitimate worry about a market being 'winner take all', in which cases the positive network externalities will force even unwilling people onto a platform.
I agree that it's not likely, as Apple seems basically happy with the market the way it is, rather than pursuing the market for cheaper phones. If they were everywhere, they might not have the same cachet...
Very true, I was just wishing it was otherwise. Both are fine platforms and miles away from the horror show mobile devices used to be half-a-decade ago.
I'm not sure if there's anything to call Gruber on. Microsoft spent a pretty penny on the Win95 launch, as does Apple for their launches. Google and the hardware manufacturers who produce Android devices simply haven't run their launches the same way, and I don't see any reason for them to start.
Apple never paid for any hype or something else. Remember the days before iPhone 4 launched? Heck it was even on my local boulevard newspaper. And no Apple didn't pay anything for it.
I think people just care about what is coming next from Apple cause they are bringing amazing products. Each year when a new iPhone launches there is something no-one even thought about, how amazing this could be but Apple is just not thinking about it they are making it real and available.
To be honest I'm a happy Apple customer but I'm also a Android developer so I know both sides and both platforms well.
Not sure why you're getting down voted, as we seem to be of the same mind re: Apple's value. When it comes to my day-to-day utility of the device, I still find my iPhone 3GS unsurpassed (although I carry around an EVO for tethering & a Nexus S since launch to give Gingerbread a fair side-by-side with iOS4).
That said, while no one doubts Apple's mastery of getting free press is quite impressive (Jobs sitting on Disney's board might help; having been CEO of Pixar, as well), I imagine Apple still spends a lot of money on their product announcement events compared to Google, and much (much!) more for branding (e.g. product placement: Google it for examples, they're impressive).
That's exactly what I wanted to say: Apple is getting so much free press others can't even think of getting. Re-reading my comment I can understand why people down voted me but I just want to talk about a example how Apple is getting free press like it was on the iPhone 4 which was found by Gizmodo before it was launched.
Engadget had leaked photos from Google Nexus 2 too but did it show up in my local boulevard newspaper? No. That's what I'm trying to say. People care about what Apple is coming up with. I don't say this cause I think it's a good or I'm a fanboy, no I'm saying this cause it is a fact.
Have you never seen an Apple iPhone commercial. Between that and the iPad, they seem to be about 1 out of every three commercials that were on leading up to the launch of those products.
"There will never be an Android phone that people line up for like they did for Windows 95 — or like they do today, once or twice a year, for major new products from Apple."
I like Gruber. I think he does some great analysis sometimes. And he loves to call "gotcha" on other peoples' "claim chowder". But his love for Apple gets the better of him sometimes, and I doubt he will call himself on this.