There will continue to be unrest in Iraq until an all-Shiite government is in control.
At the time of Gulf War II under W, the population was about 20% Sunni, 20% Kurdish, and 60% Shiite. So if you disarm the minority ruling Sunni establishment and instead pledge to install a democracy, a Shiite government is the logical conclusion.
Since realizing their mistake, the US has attempted to patch together some multi-religious, multi-ethnic government, but these are all destined to failure. The Kurds want to be left to their own devices, the majority Shiites want to rule the south of the country with most of the oil, and they want the Sunnis left out of power in the deserts to the West.
George HW, being smarter than George W, pulled his punches, left Saddam in power, and left him with helicopters to kill enough Shiites to prevent a successful rebellion of the "marsh Arabs", as they were called in news reports back then.
This "analysis" is so wrong.. power is already dominated entirely by Shiaa governments, except for Kurdistan region, but that has little to no effect outside Kurdistan.
The problem is that much of the current government officials are corrupt and have their loyalties to Iran. They are busy enriching themselves. Let alone the fact that they armed a powerful militia group that's completely beholden to Iran.. Much thanks to the US for destabilizing the country and handing it over to their so called "enemy" Iran.
There should be no doubts that the government in Basrah is all Shiite, yet people IN Basrah have been protesting very strongly in the past year. Because simply this government doesn't serve the iraqi people.
You assume 40% of the population won't create a lot of unrest when the 60% come into power and cut them out of having a say in how their lives are run. Which, I guess might happen, but it seems unlikely, especially given the acrimonious history that just keeps getting deeper and deeper.
>There will continue to be unrest in Iraq until an all-Shiite government is in control.
There will continue to be unrest in Iraq and the rest of the middle-east (and I'm including Israel in this, they are as bad as the others on this point) until A) tribalism and B) religion is taken out of politics once and for all.
A democracy is simply not possible unless it's built on an ethical bedrock that has entirely done away with both of these primitive and childish moral systems.
At the time of Gulf War II under W, the population was about 20% Sunni, 20% Kurdish, and 60% Shiite. So if you disarm the minority ruling Sunni establishment and instead pledge to install a democracy, a Shiite government is the logical conclusion.
Since realizing their mistake, the US has attempted to patch together some multi-religious, multi-ethnic government, but these are all destined to failure. The Kurds want to be left to their own devices, the majority Shiites want to rule the south of the country with most of the oil, and they want the Sunnis left out of power in the deserts to the West.
George HW, being smarter than George W, pulled his punches, left Saddam in power, and left him with helicopters to kill enough Shiites to prevent a successful rebellion of the "marsh Arabs", as they were called in news reports back then.