True but I think the parallel between Google and MS (of the 2000s) is more interesting in terms of the vital signs in their organization rather than on the product level. Because Windows was only improving from release to release, while Search is getting shittier and shittier (sorry, can't find a better word for at least my own frustration with using it today). So Search may in fact die a quick and sudden death at this pace. Theoretically replacing Search can only take one browser update: offer a choice but rearrange the options, for example.
However, what Google and pre-Nadella Microsoft share is let's say living in a bubble of a tremendous success of one product that's also the main source of revenue (MS Office, and Google Ads), plus inability to innovate. This is an institutional/organizational symptom more than anything else.
Old HN'ers should remember PG's essay[1] so maybe now is the time to reassess Google's place in the world.
Doesn't seem to be the case [1] The article that comments on this chart says other sources (non-ad ones) look promising but it more sounds like a speculation because I don't see real signs of that.
why not? it's about ~9B in 2016, ~11 in 2017, ~19B in 2018 and ~10B in the first six months of 2019, with the last quarter being the largest in the past.
Sure, it's less than the ad business but it's doubled in 3 years, surely that's a healthy rate of growth?
How is Windows OS these days? I haven't used it since the early 2000s. I think the last version I used was... XP? Everyone at my work uses a MacBook.
Some of my children are in their early 20s now and have never used Windows. It has always been OSX/MacOS, iOS, Ubuntu, Android, or ChromeOS. I don't know if my kids are typical or not but if many of the rising generation don't grow up using Windows, will they want to use it when they are adults? Will Windows hold on to its OS crown?
Windows still owns gaming which is going to keep it relevant to the youth despite anything it does poorly for some time to come.
Just look how many front-page carousel blockbusters on Steam still only support Windows.
I game on macOS and things are slowly getting better, but macOS is still mostly relegated to Aspyr ports. I'd be reluctant to claim that Windows is dying to youngsters until the state of gaming radically changes.
Gaming is definitely the big use case for windows. Also, an ok os if you don’t want to pay through the nose for top end upgradeable hardware or run a Linux desktop or hackintosh.
Haven’t tried desktop Linux in 20 years, hopefully it’s gotten better. Back then it was common to have to seek out and compile your own drivers to get network, audio, printer type drivers working lol.
I work for a Fortune 150 company with tens of thousands of employees. Every meeting is a sea of MacBooks. I can't remember the last time I saw a Windows machine at work.
I have a Macbook as well as a Windows laptop. I honestly find Windows to be a smoother experience than OS X. Windows management and file management have always been better on Windows, but it is now also much faster than it used to be. A recent update has made search very good.
At this point, all my heavy duty productivity work happens on Windows. The Macbook is mostly used only when I'm working away from my desk.
Not everyone is going to pay a massive premium for Macintosh no matter its alleged advantages.
What are the advantages anyway? I used it for a while and came away mystified. Is it all about the appearance? They spend so much effort on its appearance that I suspect that's a big part of it. It does look and feel much nicer than a typical laptop.
From a practical point of view, it felt like playing Candyland. Big silly icons bouncing around, stuff like that. The Unix shell is nice, but you can get that cheaper and better elsewhere.
If macOS wasn't UNIX-based it wouldn't have taken off for professionals to use. I quite enjoy the much better screens and my eyes are less tired when sitting at a Mac, but again, if it wasn't for UNIX, it wouldn't matter.
I ve come to find these arguments about pc vs mac are neverending and very polarised. They re not very rational either. Just like all arguments about aesthetics
The UNIX shell is not just nice, for people like me it's crucial. And mind you we are talking about Windows vs. macOS here, not macOS vs. everything else.
To me, it also implies Google probably won't ever lose the search crown directly, the same way Microsoft never lost it's OS crown, to Linux or MacOS.
However, Windows is dwarfed by the Android install base.