ICBM launches are detected via satellite primarily based on the extraordinary infrared output of a powerful rocket motor. A "stealth" ICBM would not really get you much, would it?
> The midcourse phase allows the largest opportunity to intercept an incoming missile. At this point the missile is no longer under power, so it follows a more predictable path. Depending on the interceptor launch location, multiple interceptors could be launched, with a delay between them to see if the first ones were successful. Since the interceptor has a longer time to engage, fewer interceptor sites are needed to defend larger areas.
> Unfortunately, a longer period in space provides an attacking missile the opportunity to deploy countermeasures against a defensive system. However the defensive system also has more time to observe and discriminate countermeasures from the warhead.
But I think you're right that it a stealth ICBM wouldn't achieve as much as one would naively assume, and boost-phase detection would still invite retaliation.
When it comes to clever hypothetical changes to ICBMs, I remember one of the options floated late in the cold war was using a highly reflective coating that would hopefully ameliorate the effects of lasers (since we were taking interdiction with high-powered lasers more seriously then). I bring it up because I'm pretty sure it would be at cross purposes with a stealth coating.
I bet that given sufficient satellite coverage and image processing, ICBMs might remain visible throughout most of their flight, making radar stealth a moot point. I hope the world will not go too far down the road of building out measures and countermeasures to update our nuclear weapons systems, but I think you'd have to add that possibility to the long list of possible countermeasures when doing your planning.
I wonder whether a more effective alternative would be to station troops in space. The Outer Space Treaty prohibits the deployment of weapons of mass destruction in space, but not conventional weapons or combatants. An invasion from space could be made with virtually no warning. I'm not sure stealth would be possible due to the plasma created on entry, but decoys / countermeasures are possible.
With the potential for spacelaunch to become drastically less expensive due to reusable launch vehicles, a constellation of manned hypersonic glide vehicles may become economically practical.
It is less a tech problem than a political one.
A stealth ICBM on the other hand... now that is a scary. If any other nations got wind of that we would have another nuclear arms race.