> a) The stats coming from Hubei are adverse selected; they are from patients who already had severe enough illness to go to the hospital
I don't think this assumption holds true. In a panic, many people are trying to get diagnosed based on rightfully held fear. These are people who have the energy to travel to many hospitals and stand in lines for hours. In some places, people who are seemingly symptomatic are also encouraged/forced to be diagnosed despite not feeling the need to go to a hospital.
I don't think this assumption holds true. In a panic, many people are trying to get diagnosed based on rightfully held fear. These are people who have the energy to travel to many hospitals and stand in lines for hours. In some places, people who are seemingly symptomatic are also encouraged/forced to be diagnosed despite not feeling the need to go to a hospital.