And on the flip side - just because the bubble doesn't pop this year doesn't mean your assessment of the fundamentals is wrong. The market can stay irrational for a longer time than you can remain solvent.
I remember in the late 80's when things actually seemed pretty good - but all through Reagan's presidency, the press had been lambasting "supply-side economics" (and even his VP called it "voo-doo" economics). I can't say with certainty that there wouldn't have been a recession during Bush's first term without all the negative publicity but it certainly became a factor in his unsuccessful bid for a second term.
The curious thing is that if you perform a pump-and-dump on one or more stocks you get in legal trouble. If you perform a pump (or more likely dump) on the economy as a whole, then you must be a journalist.
No, the recession during Reagan's first term was because Volcker cranked up the interest rate to shut down inflation. It worked, but it hurt the economy in the short term.
Uhm, the yield curve inverts well before a recession and with a variable look-ahead period, typically 6-18 months before, so it worked as prescribed.
All of those articles are actually spot on. If this indeed is a recession; we'll know a year from now because that's the typical delay in NBER's recession announcements.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17392859
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20371314
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20654624