The magic that was going to protect Europe from the virus was the same magic that protected Europe from SARS: The good weather.
If you delay it enough, whatever virus affects North of Asia in Winter does not affect Europe in Winter but in Spring or Summer.
Specially in places like the South of Spain or Italy, it is hot and extremely sunny most of the Summer, with probably 4 or 5 cloudy days in the 90 days of Summer.
That kills the spread of viruses and viruses themselves.
That hope made politicians complacent. In Japan they are used to natural disasters and as society they are always prepared.
South Korea is prepared because of SARS history and because as a neighbor you should always be prepared against China monster(in population density).
In fact, it really seems like every country is following the same playbook. Ignore the problem, don't prepare, and then suddenly panic when things grow exponentially.
It's a story playing out in every country's media. Ventilator shortages, PPE shortages, half assed lockdown measures followed a few days later by more draconian lockdowns. The remarkable thing is just how predictable it is.
In the middle of all the horrors of this crisis, I enjoy seeing how it brings huge amounts of people from the reign of the past and to the front line of the present.
I mean, lots of people were rejecting / forbidden to WFH and remote communications as something not worth the discussion. Now, here we go.
Lots of people had luxury of thinking that the Internet is a freaks' entertainment, not a best-ever all-purpose communication tool of huge value. Now, here you go, people have to recognise it's value.
Hell, people get an idea of hygiene knocked down into their heads. "A generation of kids who wash their hands as surgeons is growing".
I think this time will also show the value and the advantages of data-driven management, integrity and transparency, and of holding people in power accountable for everything they say and do. Hopefully, leading to wider adoption of these admirable approaches.
Norway seems to have timed the contagion enough to be able to handle it and mitigate, but you never know until too late as curve remains exponential. On the other hand, we get critizised for not having enough deaths and infected. The counter argument is that mitigation and herd immunity could take years, though other examples show we'll soon be able to open up kindergartens, schools, unaffected communities etc. and not remain in "lightweight" lockdown.
This may not be over for years, though we will grow to be able to handle it. There's yet not enough evidence which strategy is "best", however avoiding full-blown crisis and delaying unknown unknowns seems prudent.
Very good and measured blog post, I would add these two additional blunders:
RIVM kept saying that there are no asymptotic carriers, no transmission possible before symptoms show (German early patient stayed in a hotel in Netherlands, Germany quarantined his contacts before he went there. RIVM: since he hasn't coughed when he was here you're gonna be fine)
GGD - 12th march just after the first lockdownish measures: Ja go lekker on a holiday just go to the green regions. Sure, have lekker parties just not above 100 people
>This has - as far as I'm concerned - no place on HN, it is a Dutch centric affair.
Mah.
It seems to me like you can replace Netherlands with any other country and the government and/or scientific advisors to the government and/or the whatever structure that should have been prepared for these emergencies have shown the same or very similar behaviour:
1) minimize the danger (either in seriousness or sheer quantity of expected cases or both)
2) assure that everything is ready (when it isn't)
3) delay too much the whatever measures that have been taken
It's a good overview of the Dutch response. I found it interesting. Most such articles aren't written in English so this is far more accessible. If you didn't want us reading it you should have used Dutch :-)
If you delay it enough, whatever virus affects North of Asia in Winter does not affect Europe in Winter but in Spring or Summer.
Specially in places like the South of Spain or Italy, it is hot and extremely sunny most of the Summer, with probably 4 or 5 cloudy days in the 90 days of Summer.
That kills the spread of viruses and viruses themselves.
That hope made politicians complacent. In Japan they are used to natural disasters and as society they are always prepared.
South Korea is prepared because of SARS history and because as a neighbor you should always be prepared against China monster(in population density).