You seem very certain about your predictions; do you believe you have some non-obvious insight?
REITs, which own and rent out a great deal of commercial, industrial, and residential real estate have already dropped in value, losing 50% of their market capitalization in many cases. Most vacation and luxury related companies have also dropped precipitously in value.
It seems you think the market is underestimating the damage; how much money have you bet on further drops?
Startups are built on feedback. Those first customers aren’t just cashflow and validation, they are a vital source of guidance for product/service direction.
My customers are sport associations and federations, and they are 99% in hibernation right now. It’s not runway I’m short of, it’s feature requests.
> It seems you think the market is underestimating the damage; how much money have you bet on further drops?
Given that the fed is printing money hand-over-fist, and throwing it at the market, it's quite possible for the market to become completely disjointed from the main street economy.
If it weren't for the printing presses working overtime, there wouldn't be any talk of any v-shaped recovery. Instead, we'd all be panicking over the unemployment numbers.
What's the alternative? I don't get how anyone thinks that things will just go back to normal anytime soon.
ATM everyone is talking about flattening the curve. The big question is: then what?
All the curve flattening is doing is removing pressure of medical staff. It isn't a solution. Vaccines are a long time off, and otherwise people are taking stabs in the dark about other things which _may_ help, but the truth is we most likely aren't going to have anything reliable in the near future.
So what options do we have?
After the flattening of the curve if we go back to "Living normal" then the virus will simply pick up again. "Herd immunity" they say - which might not be 'too bad' in theory, but it will overload the current medical systems, and we'll be forced to go through this process all over again.
You can try an elimination approach, and perhaps for a small island based country like New Zealand (that got started early) that might work, but for everyone else it's really not an option.
The world right now is literally buying time. It buying time in the form of economic output, and right now all these measures are being pitched as a temporary solution. But the thing that everyone doesn't seem to be paying any attention to, is: what is the long term solution? And unfortunately I think the answer is that we don't have one.
REITs, which own and rent out a great deal of commercial, industrial, and residential real estate have already dropped in value, losing 50% of their market capitalization in many cases. Most vacation and luxury related companies have also dropped precipitously in value.
It seems you think the market is underestimating the damage; how much money have you bet on further drops?