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In all sincerity, New York wasn’t Wuhan either. If I were any any other state, I’d absolutely limit travel from NY and screen them.


Really? New York current has quite a few times the casualties of all of China (10834 vs 3341) with a small population than Wuhan and the casualties haven't stopped there. New York by itself has one of the high casualty levels in the world by any measure.


Any comparison using the officially reported death toll in Wuhan at face value is of no value whatsoever.


It has value - it should just be treated very skeptically.

And, honestly, the US numbers are highly inaccurate as well due to a simply lack of an ability to test (instead of a lack of will to publish the real numbers).


The casualty numbers are quite accurate. The US records every cause of death.


The US cannot record data it doesn't have. Covid is only the cause of death if the deceased had Covid; and we cannot know that unless we can test them. In aggragate, we can sidestep this issue by looking at excess death, but that is non-trivial (particuarly because the behavioural changes mean that we would expect other causes of death to differ in unknown ways). At the end of this, I would expect to get fairly accurate estimates for how many died to Covid, but while we are in the middle of it, the numbers are very murky.


Indeed, if you look at CDC's cause of death numbers you will see they only list till 2017.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm

https://www.cdc.gov/healthequity/lcod/

At least that is what I could find. I was curious to see if I could find some month to month chart on all deaths for March, February, and January. I could not find one.


https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/status/1250170016504430595

@MarkLevineNYC BREAKING: NYC publishes, for first time, data on fatalities that includes "probable" cases (those without a confirmed test result).

It has pushed the death toll in NYC up by 57%.

Was 6,589 before this adjustment. Now stands at 10,367. This is a painful but necessary accounting.


That is categorically false. They’re not testing every dead person for the virus, and most people die from one of its side effects, like pneumonia.


Have you been on site in Wuhan? Collected any data? Where can we get a copy?


No, we don't have solid data on Wuhan. Neither does anyone else outside of China (or so we strongly suspect). The question isn't whether someone has better data than you. The point is that you don't have believable data for Wuhan.


New York started their business closures and stay at home orders 2 weeks after Seattle and California closed down. That’s why they ended up with so many more cases and deaths than the former two.


New York on lockdown is also busier then Seattle on a regular day.

Have you seen any of the photos of the packed subway trains, a week and a half into the lockdown? Seattle doesn't see that sort of thing even in rush hour.

Likewise, if you live in a highrise in New York, you're going to be taking the elevator to go get groceries. Usually with other people...


Higher reported casualty rate.


The key thing is "reported" casualties. It's well known that actual casualties in China were MUCH higher than actually reported.


I suppose I worded it wrong. What I meant was, you might not be New York now, but you could be.

New York didn’t think they’d top Wuhan.




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