First of all, it's not 99.5%. A naive interpretation of these numbers is a 1% death rate, not 0.5%. 15,000 dead, out of an estimated ~1,680,000 with antibodies.
Second of all, deaths lag infections, and the actual death rate is closer to double the current death rate.
Third of all, you have no idea that if someone has antibodies, they are immune. As far as I know, nobody has tried infecting antibody-positive people... Or released studies that followed up on them, compared to an antibody-negative control group.
Fourth of all, World War II 'only' killed 3% of the world's population.
And lastly, if you lift the lockdown, and everyone gets sick all at once, the infection rate will spike dramatically. Because when hospitals are overloaded, people who can be saved are left to die. Not to mention that you'll be killing thousands of doctors, due to the high viral load they are exposed to.
Only if you think cuomo presentation is wrong because that what they quoted. Also you numbers are wrong 15,000 is only .18% of 1.6 million not 1.8%.
Also death lag infections in numbers but that wouldn't change the ratio of deaths to infections. Unless the infection rates are going up or down. Right now infection rates are lowering so you'd expect the death to infection rate to continue to stay in line with the 0.5% infection rate.
Also we have never shut down the economy with other disease it was generally assumed that you'd at least have limited immunity to disease with antibodies. I don't think swine flu or bird flu had this react why should this.
If we know only the sickest people are getting sick why don't we lift the quaretine on the people less likely to get sick or people with antibodies. It seems like we made the lockdown decision based on a lack of data. I don't know if continuing to do it when we do make sense. Especially because it could make people more sick not less.
Edit: correction used 8 million as denominator. 89% is correct
Second of all, deaths lag infections, and the actual death rate is closer to double the current death rate.
Third of all, you have no idea that if someone has antibodies, they are immune. As far as I know, nobody has tried infecting antibody-positive people... Or released studies that followed up on them, compared to an antibody-negative control group.
Fourth of all, World War II 'only' killed 3% of the world's population.
And lastly, if you lift the lockdown, and everyone gets sick all at once, the infection rate will spike dramatically. Because when hospitals are overloaded, people who can be saved are left to die. Not to mention that you'll be killing thousands of doctors, due to the high viral load they are exposed to.