This isn’t a typical recession and cannot be compared to anything in the past. The economy has been effectively put on pause. So the dynamics of the duration and recovery will be totally different than anything we’ve seen in the past. I’m optimistic about a much quicker recovery than the last one.
It depends on how much toxic debt accumulates during the pause - that is historically a large factor in causing recessions.
We have 20%+ of the workforce losing their income (many who are living paycheck to paycheck) as well as many B2C businesses closing, so we're accumulating debt that will never be paid off.
Look, I think the pause was necessary. But economies don't come with pause buttons. We had to do something that nobody has ever done before, and the second- and third-order effects are going to include some surprises.
I'm hopeful that you're right, that we can have a quick and relatively clean recovery, back to (mostly) where we were. But I'm also nervous that it won't work...
