I didn't bother to give sources because everything is pretty trivial to find, but you can Google "tesla 2170 bench test" or "Samsung INR21700-50E bench test" for details of the best cells today, "history of 18650" to see that the format is nearly 30 years old, and "(your favorite 2010 phone) BOM" for some example price data. (as an example: galaxy s4, $5 and 10Wh.) That said, I'm positive there were cheaper batteries at the time, given that cell phone batteries are typically more expensive to make even today and are on the order of 10,000 times smaller than car batteries.
I wish I had some quality further reading to link, but unfortunately I don't. "battery Google" is dominated by 1) overpriced e-stores selling a few cells to vapers, 2) news about handmade cells in a lab reaching some ridiculous performance (yeah, and a handgun kills cancer in a lab), 3) complete unadulterated bullshit from the news/bloggers/social media about battery trends, 4) bullshit corporate PR of companies claiming they're a year away from 900 Wh/kg (anyone working with batteries would give their firstborn child for 900 Wh/kg no joke)... Sadly, it's a mess. The other problem is that an explanation is hard - very hard. It involves manufacturing (and scaling this), thermal properties, funding for research, an analysis of the players in the game, etc etc. I have considered writing one, but it even for me it would be quite a project and even posted here on HN I have a feeling it might fail to get any attention. Nobody wants to read a complex multifaceted failure analysis, everybody wants to read a Bloomberg headline saying we're racing into the future, even if it's total bullshit.
> I didn't bother to give sources because everything is pretty trivial to find
If it was then I wouldn't be asking :)
Best I was able to find was a chart (ostensibly from NASA) comparing different battery technologies, which is probably where the 3× claim originated, but doesn't say much about improvements over time (only by technology): https://www.epectec.com/batteries/cell-comparison.html
To your point, though, it does indicate that lithium-ion specifically hasn't had such a 3× jump (but it does represent such a jump relative to older technologies like lead-acid or nickel-cadmium).
> you can Google "tesla 2170 bench test" or "Samsung INR21700-50E bench test" for details of the best cells today
That doesn't really say much about historical trends, but good to know.
> "history of 18650" to see that the format is nearly 30 years old
Is that relevant? AAs are even older than that, and yet seem to have improved quite a bit.
> and "(your favorite 2010 phone) BOM" for some example price data. (as an example: galaxy s4, $5 and 10Wh.)
I wish I had some quality further reading to link, but unfortunately I don't. "battery Google" is dominated by 1) overpriced e-stores selling a few cells to vapers, 2) news about handmade cells in a lab reaching some ridiculous performance (yeah, and a handgun kills cancer in a lab), 3) complete unadulterated bullshit from the news/bloggers/social media about battery trends, 4) bullshit corporate PR of companies claiming they're a year away from 900 Wh/kg (anyone working with batteries would give their firstborn child for 900 Wh/kg no joke)... Sadly, it's a mess. The other problem is that an explanation is hard - very hard. It involves manufacturing (and scaling this), thermal properties, funding for research, an analysis of the players in the game, etc etc. I have considered writing one, but it even for me it would be quite a project and even posted here on HN I have a feeling it might fail to get any attention. Nobody wants to read a complex multifaceted failure analysis, everybody wants to read a Bloomberg headline saying we're racing into the future, even if it's total bullshit.