I agree. I was thinking about trying to compare it to a profession like structural engineer, pilot, doctor, etc., but each of those has rigorous training and certification.
Those professions are characterized by the value of replicating previous work. The "problem space" involved in removing an appendix or flying a Cessna on a specific route is just much, much smaller and simpler than the problem spaces software developers are expected to navigate. When you have larger problem spaces -- Boston's "Big Dig", experimental surgery, etc., that certification and rigor becomes less relevant, and the results less predictable, just like in software.