This is the correct take on it. That kind of analysis has predicted eighteen of the last three bubbles.
The problem is that while, say, stocks are frothy, eventually inflation catches up to the froth - so even when the crash happens, you end up better off than if you sat the frothy market out on the sidelines.
It doesn't help to be right in the direction of the market, when you're wrong in the timing of it.
Agreed. As much as I wished I had sold some positions last February when it was clear something big was building in Asia, I am confident that I wouldn't have had the guts to buy back in after the crash and would have missed out on the rebound gains.
In the end, I'm probably better off having held and continuing to buy every couple of weeks throughout than trying to time the market swings from COVID.
> As much as I wished I had sold some positions last February when it was clear something big was building in Asia
I did this.
> I am confident that I wouldn't have had the guts to buy back in after the crash and would have missed out on the rebound gains.
I did this too.
> In the end, I'm probably better off having held and continuing to buy every couple of weeks throughout than trying to time the market swings from COVID.
The problem is that while, say, stocks are frothy, eventually inflation catches up to the froth - so even when the crash happens, you end up better off than if you sat the frothy market out on the sidelines.
It doesn't help to be right in the direction of the market, when you're wrong in the timing of it.