I’m not shocked to see this. I’m bullish on bitcoin overall, but at this point I believe the Geo-political risk caused by the insane power requirements of current day mining are the biggest danger to bitcoin as a whole.
Obviously the network and operate fine with less power, but if that reduction in hash rate occurs because most of the world has banned mining, you can imagine a situation where the remaining miners can much more easily centralize and control the network.
On the other hand, with China already home to > 70% of mining (per this article), perhaps it’s more surprising this hasn’t happened already.
As someone living in the European Union I'd be extremely surprised if bitcoin isn't taxed/regulated to death within 1-2 years here. The recent price increase will attract the attention of governments sceptical of assets they don't understand (they don't understand it, but they want a piece of it), and they will get loud support from the environmentalists who are alarmed by the reports making the rounds ("more power than Argentina", "more power than The Netherlands") etc.
I would vote in the EU elections for almost any parliamentary group that makes this a priority. This is a perfect example of an issue where union-level decision making is required to curb a destructive activity.
There are good examples of countries getting together to shut down destructive activities when market forces were unable to. Bans on leaded gasoline and ozone-depleting CFCs, for example.
IMO it would be enough if regulators take action against crypto exchanges. Tax outflows heavily, audit companies located in the EU, track bank transfers received from exchanges outside the EU. Controlling the exit ramps to euros is achievable. People can still trade on IRC or whatever, but the scheme is much less appealing when you don't have easy retail money flowing in to buy those coins.
This is not the same situation as your examples though. Here you are basically saying that the resulting pollution from electricity generated to mine bitcoin is worse than other uses of that same electricity. It's a slippery slope if you start to decide what people can use their electricity for. For example. Assume exactly the same energy usage. Why is surfing on HN a better use of that electricity than mining?
There are many EU directives that are indirectly aimed at limiting how people use energy, for example requiring high thermal insulation windows. Taxing crypto exchange outflows is no different IMO.
> As someone living in the European Union I'd be extremely surprised if bitcoin isn't taxed/regulated to death within 1-2 years here.
The EU has no fiscal competence, this is left to the individual states.
I don't think much Bitcoin mining is done in the EU? Much of the EU has the most expensive electricity in the world.
From a fiscal point of view the taxation of cryptocurrencies depends on each nation. Many have already decided, by law, how to tax Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. For example in Portugal if I'm not mistaken Bitcoin is considered a currency and gains made on currencies are not taxed. In other countries it's considered capital gains. Etc.
None of it is harmonized.
The EU simply doesn't have the authority at the moment when it comes to fiscal matters (it's the same for taxes on cars, gold, jewelry, whatever).
The EU probably can issue a rule banning mining using proof of work in the EU that'd then have to be translated into national laws: but I don't think that'd change anything.
Banning mining in China, however... That one would probably have consequences.
This seems unlikely. Big mining operations are already structured as corporations and taxed on their profits. Electricity is already heavily taxed in many countries in the EU. As long as it doesn't pose a threat to the electricity net there is no reason to single out bitcoin for energy use, it's not like the energy is different.
Crypto in general poses a problem for lots of governments. You want to avoid their control, they want to control you. They have manpower and violence, you have, at best, a network of willful individuals.
So either this is a tide that changes the whole world, or it's going to be harshly confronted. Doesn't matter that Tesla buys n bitcoins, or Microstrategy or whatever.
And I do have money on crypto. Not on bitcoin, not a lot, but that would against my interests too.
Can we stop calling everything a “black swan?” This would not be a black swan; nation states should be expected to have the ability to find a vulnerability in an application such as coinbase.
Now, if you were to say a nation state decides to hack the blockchain, well, I’d call that a black swan.
Obviously the network and operate fine with less power, but if that reduction in hash rate occurs because most of the world has banned mining, you can imagine a situation where the remaining miners can much more easily centralize and control the network.
On the other hand, with China already home to > 70% of mining (per this article), perhaps it’s more surprising this hasn’t happened already.