If China attacks Taiwan with its newly minted aircraft carriers and large fleets of smaller ships, who will defend them?
Now, I'm pretty sure the USA still beats China in a fair fight. But if the USA is playing defense with Taiwan, the picture is very different. China is far closer and therefore has more nearby support: in particular, air support and cruise missiles.
In a neutral fight, keeping our fleets outside of Chinese radar / aircraft range will be rather natural. But if we're talking about Taiwan specifically, its clearly a different picture: China can pretty much pepper any ship near Taiwan with its airforce and/or cruise missiles.
China invades Taiwan is probably one of the potential fights in this "Terrible 20s" period, where China has enough advantages to seriously consider the move. Not necessarily because of Chinese military spending (which has increased), or technology, but because of simple geographical advantages.
A proper invasion of Taiwan isn't even necessary. Chinese naval forces can start a blockade and really mess up international trade.
-------------
China vs South Korea is a bit further out but still within a zone where the Chinese Mainland offers a strong advantage to a hypothetical Chinese attacking force.
> I'm pretty sure the USA still beats China in a fair fight. But if the USA is playing defense with Taiwan, the picture is very different.
The background is that this has been wargamed and the the US could "lose fast", although this is probably in a "defend Taiwan" scenario. I wouldn't assume anything about a hypothetical "fair fight".
> The background is that this has been wargamed and the the US could "lose fast", although this is probably in a "defend Taiwan" scenario. I wouldn't assume anything about a hypothetical "fair fight".
Taiwan is China's backyard. USA defending Taiwan requires significantly more resources than other locations.
China has absolutely no capability to attack say... California, outside of nuclear weapons (at which point, the wargame is simple. We retaliate with our superior strategic weapons and MAD).
A "Fair Fight" would be a hypothetical Antartica fight: far away from both countries, where the two navies meet on neutral grounds. China only has 2 carriers right now, and they're smaller 70,000 ton carriers. USA has multiple Gerald Ford super-carriers over 110,000 tons.
As far as projecting a shield or area-denial, those carriers are superior to what China can do. Its only within the "radar + missile area" where the USA loses.
---------
China has additional carriers on the way, but I'm not convinced that the carrier, nor the aircraft they're loading them with, can perform like a Gerald Ford Supercarrier or its loadout of aircraft.
Well, I would say that China knows exactly what they're gunning for, and it's not California or some hypothetical midpoint; it's what they regard as their own backyard.
Nuclear armed countries fighting direct hot wars will be decided in a few hours. It's astounding to think that some people still subscribe to this idea of a gentleman's battle with both sides agreeing to not use their full capability while the other is killing their own.
>Nuclear armed countries fighting direct hot wars will be decided in a few hours.
I think it's astounding that people still think nations will just hit the Doomsday Button willy nilly. Low yield tactical nukes were always a part of any response to a Russian invasion of Poland. And they will be again as well, in a hypothetical CCP invasion of Taiwan.
Nuclear weapons would probably be used in case of invasion of either nation's homeland, but lesser non-nuclear conflicts are possible. For example, both India and Pakistan have had nuclear weapons since at least 1998. Neither used them in the Kargil War in 1999 or any of the skirmishes they've had since.
Now, I'm pretty sure the USA still beats China in a fair fight. But if the USA is playing defense with Taiwan, the picture is very different. China is far closer and therefore has more nearby support: in particular, air support and cruise missiles.
In a neutral fight, keeping our fleets outside of Chinese radar / aircraft range will be rather natural. But if we're talking about Taiwan specifically, its clearly a different picture: China can pretty much pepper any ship near Taiwan with its airforce and/or cruise missiles.
China invades Taiwan is probably one of the potential fights in this "Terrible 20s" period, where China has enough advantages to seriously consider the move. Not necessarily because of Chinese military spending (which has increased), or technology, but because of simple geographical advantages.
A proper invasion of Taiwan isn't even necessary. Chinese naval forces can start a blockade and really mess up international trade.
-------------
China vs South Korea is a bit further out but still within a zone where the Chinese Mainland offers a strong advantage to a hypothetical Chinese attacking force.