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If Tesla carves out an Apple-sized share of a market where all new passenger autos are EVs, its valuation is reasonable.

That's not an impossible outcome. I have no bets in this market, I'm strictly wait-and-see.

It's worth pointing out that Apple's valuation before it carved out that "Apple-sized share" was much, much lower.



I'm having deep trouble trying to appreciate this argument, apple has deep network effects it has build an ecosystem, a platform. If I want to use iOS I have to buy Apple hardware, if I want to offer a mobile app I have to go through the app store. Nowhere does Tesla exhibit similiar properties, instead it competes in the hyper-competitive, high capex and low margin car business. Trying to beat Toyota at scale manufacturing is a very tall order




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