It has to be an unmet need. The key word being "un-met"
You said:
> "hardly anyone really needs another social network"
You're absolutely correct.
The first phase of social networks had a lot of early adoption for many different social networks circa 2003, because at that time the need was unmet.
Then the world settled on a winner, Facebook.
Now that's no longer an unmet need.
But in reality, there are limits to being able to predict a winner.
If that existed, starting a winning business would be easy.
We only have heuristics, no crystal ball.
Also, spotting a need is not the same as satisfying it.
It's why Steve Jobs could arrive late to the party and build a winner that leapfrogged the competition over and over again.
It has to be an unmet need. The key word being "un-met"
You said:
> "hardly anyone really needs another social network"
You're absolutely correct.
The first phase of social networks had a lot of early adoption for many different social networks circa 2003, because at that time the need was unmet.
Then the world settled on a winner, Facebook.
Now that's no longer an unmet need.
But in reality, there are limits to being able to predict a winner.
If that existed, starting a winning business would be easy.
We only have heuristics, no crystal ball.
Also, spotting a need is not the same as satisfying it.
It's why Steve Jobs could arrive late to the party and build a winner that leapfrogged the competition over and over again.