Well, we're not "post-lead" anyway. Particularly in larger, older cities there is a lot of lead paint around, and this tends to be clustered in older, poorer neighborhoods with unrenovated and more poorly maintained dwellings. I'm not sure this is a good meta analysis.
And there are other neurotoxic compounds still in common use, such as mercury-aluminium-amalgam for cheap dental work. That would also confound all the simple studies. I'm afraid there can't be a firm conclusion without an in-depth study of heavy metal prevalence in bloodstream and bones vs. criminal behavior. Just plotting sales figures of leaded gas vs. murder rates doesn't say anything. Any more elaborate study is of course smaller and more expensive, so won't be done as easily.
Very few dentists in USA use amalgam, and certainly not on patients who don't already have amalgam such as children. The moment one orders amalgam one starts getting letters from EPA inquiring about the status of one's very expensive evacuation air amalgam separator. (It's true that everything dentists buy is expensive, but that's not a reason to seek out something else to have to buy.) Properly applied composite fillings have retention nearly as good as amalgam, and of course much better appearance.
With as conservative as aviation is, and as long as airplanes last, I doubt anything about it will be quick. I’m amazed it has taken this long to get a single approved 100LL replacement, considering high octane unleaded fuels have existed for decades.
> With as conservative as aviation is, and as long as airplanes last, I doubt anything about it will be quick.
You may well be right.
> I’m amazed it has taken this long to get a single approved 100LL replacement, considering high octane unleaded fuels have existed for decades.
Outside of some specialized racing fuels, no. And nothing fulfilling the other requirements (distillation curve, vapour pressure, etc etc) of 100 octane aviation gasoline (this is measured with the MON procedure, as opposed to RON or AKI you'll find at your local gas station) at somewhat reasonable cost has previously been introduced.
I think the reasons why it has taken so long are 1) it's a genuinely hard problem 2) it's not a very large market.
I’m aware that it’s MON (there are race fuels above 100 MON) and that there are different requirements for operating at altitude. Obviously it’s a specific application with specific requirements.
I think the problem would have been solved a lot sooner if there was any urgency to switch, either by the people buying it, or by regulators.
The switch with automotive fuels was easy. Cars are disposable by comparison and regulators banned lead-burning ones out of existence.
My experience here mirrors that. I just assumed that the lead paint was more expensive and the builders of my old multi-family went with duller paints. No lead to be found!
Yeah, the elephant in the room is leaded gasoline insofar as the lead-crime hypothesis is concerned. Unlike paint, lead in the exhaust spreads out across the entire community in a form that can be easily inhaled.