All HN threads attract posts with excess ratios of certainty to knowledge.
On the technical stuff, the excesses are met with really knowledgeable rebuttal, driving up the denominator. People are afraid of embarrassment, so they write more carefully, driving down the numerator. The dynamic drives the overall ratio to something like one.
On economics, everyone is really sure the other guy is crazy. They make posts that drive up the numerator, as that's the only way to get heard, and drive down the denominator, as they must address the other guy, whether they know anything about the matter or not. The average blows out hyperbolically -- if there's a limit, the signal / noise drops too low for even the craziest people before that limit is approached.
It's kind of remarkable to see how quickly those ratios go to their logical endpoints.
On the technical stuff, the excesses are met with really knowledgeable rebuttal, driving up the denominator. People are afraid of embarrassment, so they write more carefully, driving down the numerator. The dynamic drives the overall ratio to something like one.
On economics, everyone is really sure the other guy is crazy. They make posts that drive up the numerator, as that's the only way to get heard, and drive down the denominator, as they must address the other guy, whether they know anything about the matter or not. The average blows out hyperbolically -- if there's a limit, the signal / noise drops too low for even the craziest people before that limit is approached.
It's kind of remarkable to see how quickly those ratios go to their logical endpoints.