By the accounts I've read, EU were the ones who rallied around harsher sanctions that surprised even US, after getting emotional over Zelensky address. Policy makers forget that they are watching a literal professional performer to the point that west may have escalated themselves into corner that prevents de-escalation. It's... West Wing foreign policy, that may either be strategically sound or disastrous. Here's a recent essay by Tanner Greer, who also writes a lot about Taiwan, on how distinctively non strategic US thinking is, frequently distracted by moral imperatives than well reasoned strategic consequences [0]. EU may be learning this lesson the hard way as well, with increasing sentiment of US unwillingness to goto bat for UKR. Especially among Eastern states that outright wants to send NATO peacekeeping mission in URK in recent days.
With respect to Taiwan, if the lesson Xi/PRC learns from this saga is the price of taking Taiwan is eating sanctions as long as she has enough nukes to deter foreign involvement, then PRC would be incredibly pleased. Reality is export as % of GDP has been declining for last decade to the point where PRC is approaching US levels of economic "isolation". PRC losing most western export is ~10% of GDP... a few years of growth. Frankly if you told Xi that's the price for reunifying with TW, he would call it a bargain. Also for PRC, "annexing" Crimea is not a precedent for TW, a renegade Chinese state part of ongoing civil war, there's no international sovereignty violations involved, hence PRC being very vocal how UKR is not TW... West likes to emphasis UKR is not TW as well, but for different reasons. The real lessons will take months/years to unwind, in the meantime PRC is building a lot more nukes and planning for Grozny instead of "special operations".
Honestly, I think the West has significantly more to lose from sanctions on China similar to those currently in place for Russia, than China. And China knows it.
At this point the only way Taiwan survives is by quickly and covertly acquiring nuclear weapons. Imperialists everywhere have been emboldened by Putin's actions
With respect to Taiwan, if the lesson Xi/PRC learns from this saga is the price of taking Taiwan is eating sanctions as long as she has enough nukes to deter foreign involvement, then PRC would be incredibly pleased. Reality is export as % of GDP has been declining for last decade to the point where PRC is approaching US levels of economic "isolation". PRC losing most western export is ~10% of GDP... a few years of growth. Frankly if you told Xi that's the price for reunifying with TW, he would call it a bargain. Also for PRC, "annexing" Crimea is not a precedent for TW, a renegade Chinese state part of ongoing civil war, there's no international sovereignty violations involved, hence PRC being very vocal how UKR is not TW... West likes to emphasis UKR is not TW as well, but for different reasons. The real lessons will take months/years to unwind, in the meantime PRC is building a lot more nukes and planning for Grozny instead of "special operations".
[0] https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/18/opinion/ukraine-russia-wa...