If a benefit of EVs is currently theoretical and would only come after the useful life of the car, is it really a benefit?
I say this as a happy EV-owner, but one who doubts that my EV will still be on the road by the time when my electricity is >75% sourced from renewable or nuclear energy.
If nothing else, at least the demand from your EV is contributing to the mammoth project of EV charging infrastructure, which will help with future EV uptake.
The current projections are that the switchover to primary renewables is going to happen in the lifetime of EVs manufactured today. For a slow to adapt industry such as our energy grids the drastic capital cost reductions (much less TCO advantages such as decreased fuel costs, decreased maintenance costs) of renewables (especially wind and solar, but some of those advances have had knock-on effects in mainstay hydro's TCO too) has made them take notice and they are adjusting much more rapidly than people assume. Entire countries have had 24 hour periods or more entirely running on renewables, and sure that's good weather, but that's still not something some people would have guessed ten years ago. Most of that isn't top-down government mandates, most of that is "ordinary" capitalism and the fact that power companies are realizing it's "easy money" to go for cheaper renewables as large portions of their energy mix. (To be fair, power companies have always worked that way. Even what most people think of as "coal states" have always been nearly as much hydro as coal since basically the beginning of electricity.)
Just about no one is building new nuclear into the mix right now, but that's a different can of worms, and at least for the moment with so many easy wins in sight to be had in solar/wind/improving existing hydro it may not even be necessary to add much or any nuclear.
My EV is 7.5 years old and so probably halfway to its median practical service life. It's already down to around 70 miles of "can count on it" range and in 7.5 more years, I expect it to be down to just under 60.
I don't think very many 2015 Nissan LEAFs will be in service at the epoch rollover, unless someone comes out with a <$2500 in today's money battery replacement pack. No one's putting a $5-7K battery into a 15 year-old outdated tech BEV in 2030.
For some clarification, I did mean more in terms of EVs manufactured starting around today (next 10-15 years) more than those manufactured as of today.
If a benefit of EVs is currently theoretical and would only come after the useful life of the car, is it really a benefit?
I say this as a happy EV-owner, but one who doubts that my EV will still be on the road by the time when my electricity is >75% sourced from renewable or nuclear energy.