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> A drawn out conflict favors Russia

Probably true. But there's no situation in which Russia ends up richer for having gone to war than had they not bothered in the first place. Which is to say, everyone has lost already. It's a tragedy for all parties -- and it's Putin's fault.



If they manage to capture the coast including Odessa and the Donbass, they will have recovered a large chunk of the Russian speaking population lost after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and add a lot of industrial capacity. Long term this would benefit Russia, Ukraine would be reduced to a rump state.

But yeah the pre-2014 situation would be vastly better for all sides involved. Ukraine could have taken the Belarussian or Khazak trajectory.


They are nowhere near taking Odessa. It is extremely unlikely that they will achieve that in the foreseeable future.


People don't seem to realize that Odessa has 2500km of catacombs.[0]

Taking Mariupol will seem like a walk in the park compared to trying to take Odessa.

There's no way that Odessa falls to the Russians.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odessa_Catacombs


How much of that industrial capacity is left?

Russia is corrupt through and through and cannot built new companies. If the industrial capacity is bombed, it will be useless for them.

As for Belarussia? What trajectory is it to become Putins labdog?


While Donbas has historically been an important mining and industrial region, I've read that it has been in steep decline for many years. Due to low productivity of the industries and the high cost of services for the aging population, it is seen as a net economic loss for whoever takes it. I've read speculation that this is one reason why the Kremlin resisted annexing Donbas for so long. (There were initiatives from Donbas to get annexed the way Crimea was, because they were tired of being in legal limbo, but the Kremlin refused.)




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