I’m surprised you can read the ISW updates and have that be your take on the situation.
My primary takeaways from them recently:
* Russia is having serious problems getting troops
* their execution is terrible and all of their successes are very costly. Even Russian mil bloggers are complaining about this.
* the push for the east is coming at great cost but provides basically no strategic benefit
Recent news as of today has suggested significant Ukrainian success in severodonestk but let’s see. I expect the city will fall eventually. If it doesn’t then… idk, I feel like Russia has all but lost the war.
ISW has shifted to trash talking the Russian military effort because news from the front isn't fun anymore. I enjoy the news of Russian dysfunction as much as any Ukraine ally, but if you read below the fold it's exactly as I said.
I am hopeful that Ukraine can grind some asymmetric attrition out of Severodonetsk. Maybe that is why we are beginning to see some good news out of the city. Maybe they hope to turn it into Stalingrad with Russia on the other side this time.
I think Ukraine is taking a beating from the currently superior Russian artillery and I suspect that's why they can't help but slowly lose ground right now. They need neutralizing weapons (on the way but needs to be quicker and more) and they need to leverage their many tactical advantages in urban warfare. Ukraine has an amazing fighting force but there's only so much they can do while being pounded by long-range artillery on the flat terrain of the Donbas.
I’m not convinced it’s so trivial just because it’s entertaining.
These are Russian mil bloggers. The most pro Russian military needs you can get. Some of them are embedded with the troops. They have only recently started to be very critical of Russian military leadership. I think it reflects an inflection point. They’ve lost a lot of their officers. Their leadership is shit. Their units are disorganized, demoralized, and comprised of various half depleted units smushed together. Their logistics and intel are poor. I think its just a leading indicator of reduced fighting capacity.
Yeah, I don't really think they have another 100 days in them without internal crisis far worse than what they feared in an early retreat.
The Ukraine is wise to stay away from the table and slowly grow stronger. I can't imagine a workable plan for Ukraine to keep Russian empire dreams from threatening it again in short order aside from keeping Russia politically trapped in military conflict until exhaustion. Hopefully enough of the west will support them even if they never go back to the table.
I hope they are seeing the whole picture clearly. Historically, Russia has demonstrated tremendous will to fight on in a degraded state.
At the very least, at the end of this war, Putin must be persuaded that the cost of additional invasions is not worth the benefit. The West must arm Ukraine to the teeth and hope this is accomplished. I am certain he will try to take as much as he believes he can.
Good question. Maybe you should ask the Ukrainians why they didn't surrender on day 3. In fact, why didn't they welcome Russia as liberators? Did the Evil West whisper in their collective ears, like Rasputin, casting a spell on them to become our puppets?
Or... could it simply be that Ukrainians hate the Russian invader as passionately as Russians still hate the Nazis today? Passionately and rightly, for invading their country and slaughtering millions of their people?
Putin, the delusional fool, has no idea the depth his evil imprint has forever laid upon Ukrainian-Russian relations. He thought that shared history, religion, etc. would excuse the oceans of blood, an entire nation's livelihood disrupted and destroyed. He thought he could brutalize Europeans into submission.
Can it simply be that eventually Ukrainians understand that the deal was always like I have described it in the previous post?
Ukraine is very diverse country. It still considers citizens of Crimea and LDNR of its own, but I'm pretty sure these are now hating Ukraine passionately. Especially after many, many acts of Ukraine bombing Donetsk in absense of any sensible military goal.
If the boys and girls from Kievan twitter hate Russia with passion, that is survivable.
> Can it simply be that eventually Ukrainians understand that the deal was always like I have described it in the previous post?
That still leaves my same question. If their understanding is the same as yours, why did they not surrender on day 3 as you said they should?
Could it be that Putin has activated their national identity by threatening them into collective self-defense?
And now that they have held their own despite being brutalized, do you think they will forget their achievements and hand over their lives to their attackers? Perhaps they have gained more self-respect than that. Perhaps they see themselves as more than just collateral damage in some great power struggle.
> Ukraine is very diverse country. It still considers citizens of Crimea and LDNR of its own, but I'm pretty sure these are now hating Ukraine passionately. Especially after many, many acts of Ukraine bombing Donetsk in absense of any sensible military goal.
Unfortunately there is no one to tell us what Donbas Ukrainians think, free of propaganda. But it will become clear soon enough.
For now all I have is this poll [1], conducted in January, which says a plurality of Donbas residents prefer to be part of Ukraine. I can't imagine that sentiment towards Russia has warmed since Putin's horrific invasion. In fact, polls say it's overwhelmingly negative [2,3], which is hardly surprising given Putin has destroyed these people's lives for no reason.
In the poll of [1], only 20% of LDNR pollsters are saying they want to be a part of Ukraine. The rest of the article seems to be working around that number, which represents the total failure of the Ukrainian state. They have lost Donetsk for good.
Perhaps they have indeed lost the small parts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts that comprise the separatist republics. It's no reason to give Russia another inch beyond those, since the people in the remainder overwhelmingly oppose Russian control of their lands.
This poll also shows that people are overwhelmingly like to vote for the status quo.
The status quo for quite large part of that land is now "Russian military administration". That, combined with the fact that Ukrainian forces bomb civians such as the attacks on Kherson, allows Russia to try and keep it.
You assume that surrendering is without a consequence to Ukrainians. When in fact we can expect pretty much Ukrainian genocide which was both declared by Putin and can already be seen in occupied territories with executions, rapes, concentration camps, deportations, forbidding language etc.
When you have to defend yourself you defend yourself. Arguing otherwise is immoral.
Also, Ukraine loosing ensures russia attack other countries (using Ukrainians no less). That's why all the countries next in line are the most supporting Ukraine's defense i.e. Poland, Baltics, Sweden, Finland etc.
> already be seen in occupied territories with executions, rapes, concentration camps, deportations
I hope you have heard that Ukrainian parliament had to fire Denisova, who was responsible for watching human right violations and was making claims out of thin air. A lot of western press quoted her fervently.
So unknown part of these allegations is compromised.
> forbidding language
Say ukrainians, who are working in limiting Russian usage for 30 years already.
If they were to surrender on day 3 they will get a puppet government (of ukrainians) and most of their country intact (no Crimea, but Donbass could be reintegrated). But that's mostly off the table now.
No wonder Ukrainians are so anti-Russia now. During this invasion, they and all their infrastructure have been made cannon fodder for Putin's ego. If they capitulate, they will be conscripted to be cannon fodder for Putin's ego again.
This is the grim destiny of those who submit to Putin's self-styled resurgent Russian Empire.
My primary takeaways from them recently:
* Russia is having serious problems getting troops
* their execution is terrible and all of their successes are very costly. Even Russian mil bloggers are complaining about this.
* the push for the east is coming at great cost but provides basically no strategic benefit
Recent news as of today has suggested significant Ukrainian success in severodonestk but let’s see. I expect the city will fall eventually. If it doesn’t then… idk, I feel like Russia has all but lost the war.