What I'm about to say maybe be totally shocking, but it's the truth. A few people have started to notice it, and it will be more apparent as time goes on, and there will be no reversal from this trajectory.
We are witnessing the total implosion of the Russian military force. The causes will be analyzed for decades (was it corruption? was it misguided doctrine?).
What's the basis for my claim? Some of the Russian (DNR and LDR, included) forces that are fighting currently (you can say conscripts or whatever, but they are troops in Uniform) are showing up with zero training. Zero.
Think about why that might be happening to the 2nd largest military in the world, that's not generally mobilized, fighting a small country in a "special operation".
This is disingenuous considering the entire Western World is helping Ukraine with weapons, intel, billions worth of aid, sanctions on Russia etc. Russia is fighting a war in Ukraine, but it's not just against Ukraine. In their view, they are fighting a war against the West in Ukraine.
US Lend Lease to Ukraine was what, $30B? And that money hasn't been even tapped yet. I don't know the current numbers today, but I'm thinking at least $5B has gone to Ukraine in arms, just from the United States. Ukraine's pre-war military budget seems to be about $6B. US is basically subsidizing UKR defense spending for the next 5 years.
Given the US defense budget is ~$1T, spending < 10% to drastically depleting the Russian military (without even using US forces) is an opportunity that will not be squandered.
Russia can complain all they want, but the truth is they can stop this war immediately by withdrawing. It's a war of choice that they can no longer withdraw from.
I think you have a point. On paper, they had lots of equipment, materiel (and I guess training too) but corrupt officials diverted the monies that were supposed to go for equipment and training and diverted them to their own interest. Moreover, given Putin's coy approach where he tried to pretend they were exercises and not actual war, gave these corrupt officials no time to try and scrounge up some of their ill-spent monies and prepare their military for actual conflict.
That said, I don't think the PLA is as corrupt and if they decide to have some exercises across the straits, they will probably be better prepared and equipped. so we had better have some contingencies for a second theater.
> so we had better have some contingencies for a second theater.
USA doesn't have a first theater yet--no troops have been mobilized into Europe.
The $1T/year US military budget is insanely large. Chucking a few $B to Ukraine is not deteriorating anything. Supporting Ukraine is basically a cheap way to tie up Russia and use up old equipment that would have been retired anyway.
US defense industry is known to keep making new stuff and retiring the old in order to keep production lines from dying. There is a very deep reserve for all that stuff. See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7CmXz8Qd9yw
As for Taiwan, after the war started, Biden made removed the ambiguity around US involvement. And Taiwan has been preparing for a Chinese invasion far longer than Ukraine preparing for the Russian invasion (mostly since 2014). At this point, it's clear that if China invaded Taiwan, they'd have to do it entirely themselves. I don't think they're ready to take that risk.
What I'm about to say maybe be totally shocking, but it's the truth. A few people have started to notice it, and it will be more apparent as time goes on, and there will be no reversal from this trajectory.
We are witnessing the total implosion of the Russian military force. The causes will be analyzed for decades (was it corruption? was it misguided doctrine?).
What's the basis for my claim? Some of the Russian (DNR and LDR, included) forces that are fighting currently (you can say conscripts or whatever, but they are troops in Uniform) are showing up with zero training. Zero.
Think about why that might be happening to the 2nd largest military in the world, that's not generally mobilized, fighting a small country in a "special operation".