I almost get that, but the more I think about it the more unreasonable it sounds.
If I put 1 bullet in a revolver and spun the chamber, would I feel afraid to pull the trigger with the gun to my head? I wouldn't really know that I was in danger, just that there was a chance... Yet I would be afraid, and really should be.
Maybe the difference is that other people wouldn't put the risk of ruin at 1/6. Or perhaps it's just the "black swan effect" (the human tendency to treat improbable events as impossible).
Say we have the same revolver with a single bullet. But this bullet doesn't kill. If you pull the trigger and the bullet fires, everyone's life may or may not be negatively impacted by an unknown degree sometime in the coming decades.
I may feel hesitation, but I would not feel fear.
It's not because it's a rare event, it's because it's a slow, "invisible", and uncertain event.
If I put 1 bullet in a revolver and spun the chamber, would I feel afraid to pull the trigger with the gun to my head? I wouldn't really know that I was in danger, just that there was a chance... Yet I would be afraid, and really should be.
Maybe the difference is that other people wouldn't put the risk of ruin at 1/6. Or perhaps it's just the "black swan effect" (the human tendency to treat improbable events as impossible).