HN also underestimated cryptocurrency craze. Yet years later, it is busted.
Seeing the same patterns with AI. Every startup is now incorporating “AI” or “deep learning” or “OpenAI” into their decks/motto/pitch.
Have yet to see anything worth using beyond the initial hype. Using AI to me is like learning another programming language. Same shit. Different interface.
A lot of the AI programming things you can do would be easier to either
1. type out yourself
2. copy and paste from StackOverflow
3. find a library that does the thing you want
It's not like CoPilot is any better. It's like when Microsoft and Google tried to force text completion on emails, it just gets in the way and makes me lose my train of thought.
AI is really great for very specific tasks that would be difficult to incorporate into a traditional algorithm. I really like Photoshop's background removal tool for example. But general purpose AI to me is blown out of proportion in terms of hype. Not everything needs iPhone levels of scaling. 3D printing, VR, Web 3, Cryptocurrencies, NFTs, Metaverse, AI. The list goes on. These things have niche use cases. AI is great for a lot of niche use cases (video upscaling, for example). But for general purpose software interaction? Maybe not.
> It's like when Microsoft and Google tried to force text completion on emails, it just gets in the way and makes me lose my train of thought
I have been using a paper notebook to take my notes for a while and I like that I can remember what I scribble spacially.
Recently I decided to also use the notebook to sketch the really important e-mails - the ones you send to people either really high up or that you value a lot but can't reach often - in paper. I have been able to scribble rather quickly in paper and come up with concise but also complete write-ups and also noticed I am happy to not be looking at the computer screen.
I started this because I noticed there was a lot of noise going on when using outlook with all the notifications popping-up and the hard to understand new interface that just scales like ass and becomes unreadable in my 4k laptop, and the autocomplete kept axing my thoughts.
Is cryptocurrency busted? Sure, it didn't replace the global monetary system, but it seems to be a proven technology now. And sure, it had its crashes, but BTC is up 112% over 1Y, and lots of cryptos have legitimate payment purposes.
Proven to do what exactly? A solution for which problems?
Cryptocurrency had billions invested into it and the most valuable product that came out of it was cartoon apes. There's not a single blockchain that replaced the existing financial system, an area it was supposed to disrupt. There's not a single blockchain in use anywhere in logistics and supply chain, an area the blockchain was allegedly going to revolutionize. There's not a single blockchain being used for identity management by serious enterprises.
Most new technologies are overhyped, but blockchain/cryptocurrency is the only one where you can look back and be astonished at how virtually nothing was created. Its most important lasting contribution to society is providing incontrovertible evidence that just because "thought leaders" and deep-pocketed investors say something is going to change the world, it doesn't make them right.
Whether or not you agree with the greater philosophical goal of Bitcoin, Bitcoin proved the ability to create a system of value using basically just cryptography and with a built-in reward system to incentivize the decentralization of the network -- and it grew enough that it can now operate as a standalone method of payment. It's an amazing feat.
I don't disagree with you. But the original post was about 1) cryptocurrency as a whole being busted and 2) that cryptocurrency had never provided any kind of value. Those are what I disagree with.
Yeah it just requires massive investment in computer components, ridiculous amounts of carbon burning, servers in the Arctic to lower cooling costs, and a few towns full of people subject to more sound than jet engines at all hours of the day. Innovation!
> Bitcoin proved the ability to create a system of value using basically just cryptography and with a built-in reward system to incentivize the decentralization of the network
No, because micro transactions in games is a centralized system involving zero cryptography, usually powered by a centralized database by the game developer. Bitcoin is decentralized.
Barely, if at all. Technically it can be decentralized, but Bitcoin's design promotes centralization, and the result is that currently Bitcoin can be controlled by either two entities (AntPool and Foundry USA) or three (one of the former ones plus F2Pool and ViaBTC) - and it's not going to get better.
Good luck sending 10 BTC worth of USD from a US bank to China or Russia, or ANY bank without raising eyebrows and getting your bank account locked/frozen
Well, I hold crypto, but admittedly it's kind of failed as far as payments are concerned.
I used to use BTC quite regularly for payments back in like 2014-2015. But now, it's too expensive to move around due to fees so I just hold it. The same can be said even of ETH - the fees are too high to interact with a lot of the DeFi stuff.
There are 'layer 2' solutions that tackle the fees issue but uptake of these has been slow.
It's why they pivoted to calling BTC a store of value years ago. The payments side of crypto is kind of disappointing.
Maybe a better example would be the more general "blockchain". There was all sorts of talk just a few years ago about how it was the most revolutionary technology since the Web and every business was going to be affected by it.
What's the risk-adjusted return and correlation with other securities? Those are both more important than share price.
Since it doesn't pay dividends in USD, its USD value is only achieved if you go around convincing everyone else to stop selling it so that you can sell it. Which I think conflicts with it being used for payments.
As a consumer there is practically speaking zero legitimate payment purposes available to me. Sure there are a couple of niche services taht offer BTC payments alongside credit cards...but my grocery store does not accept BTC.
Just like cryptocurrencies, transformer models have their valid use-cases, but are being so massively overhyped and oversold that it prompts natural resistance and spoils the whole thing. The result is that whenever someone talks about "AI" (or "crypto"), it's just safest to assume that they have no idea what they're talking about and want to sell it to you because more people getting hyped is how they get their investment back.
Seeing the same patterns with AI. Every startup is now incorporating “AI” or “deep learning” or “OpenAI” into their decks/motto/pitch.
Have yet to see anything worth using beyond the initial hype. Using AI to me is like learning another programming language. Same shit. Different interface.