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Clearly the recent 1.8B Euro fine the EU levied against Apple didn't send a message. Perhaps the EU needs to ratchet it up by an order of magnitude.


More likely, Apple needs to withdraw entirely from the EU and see what happens.


What will happen if they exit the EU? They will loose more revenue and tank their stock and Tim Apple will get the boot ad EU users will move to Samsungs, Pixels and Nokias and life will go on.

You're acting like the EU is some poor country in the outback and not their second biggest market after the US.

Or better yet, we fork Android and have a non-Google EU-only appstore similar to Huawei's Andorid fork OS and appstore but with EU's privacy rules. If so many companies bother to make apps just for Huawei's separate appstore, then they'll definitely do that for the EU as well. Of course, then Google will go bitch about it to "daddy", and the US will probably start a trade war with the EU.


> Or better yet, we fork Android and have a non-Google EU-only appstore similar to Huawei's Andorid fork OS and appstore but with EU's privacy rules.

No one would use it and no developers would publish to them. All brands have their own appstore already, but no one uses them so they also all ship with the Google app store.


Unless you can't ship with the Google store.

You're wrong. A lot of Apps are on Huawei's store in EU.


> Of course, then Google will go bitch about it to "daddy", and the US will probably start a trade war with the EU.

If Google can do this, certainly Apple can do it too. Biden doesn’t strike me as having much appetite for a trade war with the EU (he famously has a lot of soft diplomacy skills instead), but if Trump were reelected? Maybe that’s something Apple’s holding out for, who knows. Wild speculation on my part.


[flagged]


Which lunatic? I heard it form a tech youtuber and on HN.



Trump


Why does it matter who said it? Tim Apple is nothing offensive. Should we all avoid loving dogs because Hitler and Saddam used to love dogs?


Apple's last quarter results: $30 billion in net sales from Europe, their second largest market behind the Americas. https://www.apple.com/newsroom/pdfs/fy2024-q1/FY24_Q1_Consol...

The idea of leaving Europe is nonsense. Apple is a publicly owned corporation, and Tim Cook would be immediately dismissed for such financial recklessness.


what are their margins? an $18B fine starts to make it seem possible that it would be profitable to not sell there.


Or, you know, they could just comply with our laws...


I think their point of view would be that they’re selling a global product and the value of serving a market needs to exceed the cost of the peculiarities of serving it.

Maybe there’s a complex solution here, but the naive one of global compliance to local demands needs an evaluation of cost vs reward. There’s also the somewhat possible concern that the EU might actually just be hostile to Apple and cutting losses now against possible future losses makes sense. (Again, remember we’re presuming order of magnitude increases in fines).


> Maybe there’s a complex solution here,

There's an extremely simple solution here. Just comply with the EU regulation in good faith. Sure, you lose some revenue that you'd otherwise get, but only for extremely popular games/apps like Fortnite etc, but your overall margins remain very thick. The vast majority of users would keep using only the App Store and vast majority of developers would publish there, so what's the big deal?

Instead it seems that what Apple is afraid of, is that this would lead to a chink in their armor, _eventually_ leading to their no-compromise attitude being re-evaluated in other markets as well, both by users (just a couple of TikToks from high-profile influencers would be enough to bring this issue into a more public light) and regulation bodies.


How much of that revenue is threatened by DMA? If they stand to lose most of their revenue or profits by complying with the laws, why bother?

It seems crazy that Apple is going to die on this hill, but I’m really curious what the accountants are sending the execs. I could see them willing to gamble a chunk of revenue to prevent every other market from trying to write similar laws, especially if they’re losing that revenue regardless.


80% of Apple's revenue is hardware.


My guesses: A big party at Google, a wave of so-so smartphones from companies that will try their luck in the high-end smartphones segment, a grey market of iPhones imported from other countries at high prices without warranty.


Grey import is usually cheaper due to higher taxes in EU.


Watch as your shares slide down as you withdraw from one of the worlds largest markets?


The EU is Apples least profitable market.


Totally wrong. Europe is Apple's 2nd biggest market. https://www.apple.com/newsroom/pdfs/fy2024-q1/FY24_Q1_Consol...


And it’s their least profitable.


What are you basing that claim on? As far as I can see Apple's financials only break out revenue by geography, not net income.


Is it less profitable than China? Doesn't look like it. They operate in more than 2 markets.


I so wish they would do that. Apple thinks it's more powerful than government, let's test that theory!

Most people would understand that these huge, aggressive corporates must be brought to heel. The sooner the EU establishes credibility in this respect, the sooner we all win.


Apple stock price will drop. IPhone usage in EU will drop instantly. Apple revenue will be severely hit.

People will get over it switch to alternative services.


I think the main danger would be a (new?) competitor trying to become Apple, to fill the niche of premium devices, simple lineup, i.e. whatever image apple currently has. And they could do so in europe in all peace and once they are ready expand to other markets and compete with Apple. To me that seems like one of the biggest dangers of withdrawing from the EU.


And how long would that take to happen?


Investors will be very angry and the entire C-suites will be at risk of losing their jobs. They're doing this only because it will maximize their revenue/profit through market control.


The lose of revenue would not be the biggest problem, they could afford it. The problem would be the loss of applications, most EU based developers would stop supporting iOS and focus on Android. That would hurt


It’s a FAFO suggestion, nothing more, but I have not seen anyone consider (or care?) whether Apple’s EU customers support the various decisions, which is the point that interests me.


I suppose they could do that, but wouldn't they still need to pay the 1.8B?

[Added] ... And continue to support products and services already sold?


Why would they? They’d be beyond any courts jurisdiction, but of course they could never return.


That’s not how cooperation treaties and jurisdictions work. They will totally pay that 2B and also pay for the privilege of running after them and the interest rate too.

It’s not a five year old who can do something mean and then just quickly run home.


Hahaha, have you seen the firing frenzy the US execs were expected to execute for a SLIGHT DIP in revenue and a few % in cost of a loan? :D

And you expect those same share holders to just support leaving of a massive market? Cook would be taken through NYSE by his nether regions by just thinking that. This whole idea is nonsense.

And even if, by any bizarre chance (it's 2020s after all) it happens, we'll suffer with... *checks list*... Samsung Galaxy Phones? Lenovo, Samsung and ASUS laptops? Sony headphones? Huh. What horrible existence. I'm sure that would be an end of the Union. Imagine using a great Samsung foldable instead of an iPhone.


Motorolas are a thing again and are quite good.


Well here's another possibility.

What if Apple complied with the law.

They don't want to lose all those sales anyway.


> More likely, Apple needs to withdraw entirely from the EU and see what happens.

This uniquely American type of arrogance where TikTok/Huawei is guilty even if it complies will the laws, and American companies are innocent even if they break all our laws.

There are, I am afraid, only two ways to respond - aggressively or subserviently. As US economy loses its position as the centre of the universe, the second option becomes less appealing.


I'd love to watch that!


Quite an authoritarian take.


The unelected 'authority' being Apple, of course.

Apple's choice was apparently to die as a hammer-wielding hero or live long enough to become the patriarch on the telescreen.


Both sides are authoritarian. One is a private company with more money than most countries, one is an economic union nominally representing the people of many countries.

I don't know where I fall on this issue personally, but siding with Apple is probably more authoritarian.


People defend Apple like its the underdog. Apple has been Goliath for almost a decade. Apple under Tim Cook is more about making money than it is about making the best product.


Yep and i think the market is saturated, but they still need the number to go up for the big shareholders. I mean they have a gross profit of 150 billion, it's not like this is helping the workers making apple's products and services.


I'm old enough to remember when they were the underdog.

I still find it weird that people spent the last 5 years complaining about practices that started when they still were an underdog, and which were applauded at the time, and which don't even fully apply now to all developers anyway.

But you're right, they're not underdogs any more.


It's two private companies, in this case one is using their local government to try to force the other to change, in order to make more money.


People think Apple is a struggling company still making iPod and PowerMacs to stay afloat.


Oh, authoritarian EU. What is it, 2016 again?




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