I am not a German and while I have been in the country many times things look different from the outside, so take my impressions with a grain of salt.
First, the Germany indeed has significantly reduced its reliance on fossil fuels.
But this is not a one-parameter optimization for the country. For decades, Germany was also a center of advanced manufacturing in Europe, one of the very few places able to compete with Chinese manufacturing due to the quality of its manufacturing. It was everywhere: national champions, large factories, small companies, interconnected into a web of excellence.
That, I think, is slowly unraveling and expensive energy is a strong reason for it although definitely not the only one. I have recently met (on hikes and trips) three former owners of small-ish German manufacturers who sold their businesses "because running manufacturing in Germany is not great now" and expected the new owners to move production overseas. New owners bought for established, multi-year orders and being able to stamp the old company name on the products.
This is a very slow process that runs over decades and while the numbers in the study are undoubtedly correct, the reduction in availability of inexpensive, predictably priced energy from the nuclear exit likely accelerates the reduction of Germany manufacturing might. I would love to be wrong, we shall see in another 10-15 years. My 2c.
First, the Germany indeed has significantly reduced its reliance on fossil fuels.
But this is not a one-parameter optimization for the country. For decades, Germany was also a center of advanced manufacturing in Europe, one of the very few places able to compete with Chinese manufacturing due to the quality of its manufacturing. It was everywhere: national champions, large factories, small companies, interconnected into a web of excellence.
That, I think, is slowly unraveling and expensive energy is a strong reason for it although definitely not the only one. I have recently met (on hikes and trips) three former owners of small-ish German manufacturers who sold their businesses "because running manufacturing in Germany is not great now" and expected the new owners to move production overseas. New owners bought for established, multi-year orders and being able to stamp the old company name on the products.
This is a very slow process that runs over decades and while the numbers in the study are undoubtedly correct, the reduction in availability of inexpensive, predictably priced energy from the nuclear exit likely accelerates the reduction of Germany manufacturing might. I would love to be wrong, we shall see in another 10-15 years. My 2c.