…and Novo's patents on Ozempic expire within a decade, at which point it will probably have to fight against a wave of competition from generic-drug manufacturers.
Massive understatement. Every biotech with the capability is already building out a pipeline to produce a generic or their own GLP drug. There is too much money at stake that everyone is going to want to grab a share. Which is going to make prices crumble for producers.
The pipeline is bursting and many are more effective (longer lasting\better form factor). I think I count 18 from the main chart in this research paper...
>A new era for obesity treatment has commenced where pharmacotherapy with combinations of entero-pancreatic hormones approach the WL efficacy of bariatric surgery. Tirzepatide is the first dual agonist which has been approved for chronic weight management, but numerous other dual and/or triple agonists (cagrisema, retatrutide, mazdutide and survodutide) are also in phase 3 trials as potential treatments for obesity and its metabolic complications. Moreover, oral GLP-1 RA are also under development and will provide an alternative option.
>The plethora of efficacious obesity pharmacotherapies with different mechanisms of action will allow tailored treatment plans based on individual’s preference, comorbidities and treatment response. A percentage of people will not be able to tolerate the new pharmacotherapies or achieve the individualised goals and others may not have long-term access to these treatments. Combining different treatment modalities (including lifestyle interventions, pharmacotherapies and bariatric surgery) may support people to achieve individualised long-term goals, maximise health benefits and improve quality of life.
Speculation, but below is a search hit about companies with public GLP1 programs in the works. These would be companies hoping to make an improved drug (oral or better weight loss/tolerability properties). I am sure there are others with less visibility. Generics development is probably more stealthy. I think technically you are not allowed to use/test a competitor compound, but I am sure everyone does it.
I've no doubt that immediately prior to the expiry, a newer formulation with some other advantage will be released, thereby renewing the need to buy drugs under patent.
I definitely hope that newer formulations with various advantages are released. In fact it seems like they are already on the way with Tirzepatide (a GLP-1 and GIP analogue). More distant are GLP-1/GIP/Glucagon agonists, which are likely to be more effective still. However I doubt that Novo's competitors which are researching this drug will kindly wait for Novo's patent to run out before releasing them.
Generic manufacturers have nothing to lose by selling the v1 Ozempic. Sure, maybe it is less good along some dimension, but if it is effective and X% of the v2 formulation price, going to come down to economics.
