I don't think I could have predicted exactly what would happen before the iPhone, but _after_ the iPhone launched I thought it was pretty evident that _if_ Apple managed to pull it off wrt the carriers (which they did), other cell phone companies would have a lot of catching up to do.
I always thought that Big Telco wouldn't be the ones bringing the innovation. I did expect that 3G would eventually reduce telcos to big data pipes (exactly their nightmare 10 years ago), but of course I couldn't have imagined that it would take so long to happen, and that it happened to fast once it did (how many sends MMS today?)
Very good point. Back in the old days (pre-iphone), I remember the conversation was ... oh no .. the carriers won't go for that. I remember getting slightly nauseated when I heard the amount of money made by the carriers in selling ringtones. Also, cellular data in Canada was ridiculously expensive (probably still is). I remember it taking $10 to download a single page off of CNN.
On J2ME, the early model was ... you had to pay 2K to get your app approved by the carriers. I was giving away some free apps in those days. I remember politely declining the rep I was talking to and thinking FU!!! You want me to pay you to get a free app into your store? The store that has almost no selection? This is before Ads on phones btw. Still ... many people thrived in that ecosystem. Anyone remember sites like Handango? Heh .. those were the days.
So ... the carriers still live. They didn't get what they deserved. The people who catered to the whims of the carriers are the ones who paid for it. There is a lesson in here somewhere.
> So ... the carriers still live. They didn't get what they deserved.
I don't see any way to make carriers "pay" until we have technology that can replace their massive capital investment (partially funded by taxpayers). The barriers to entry are extremely high.
I always thought that Big Telco wouldn't be the ones bringing the innovation. I did expect that 3G would eventually reduce telcos to big data pipes (exactly their nightmare 10 years ago), but of course I couldn't have imagined that it would take so long to happen, and that it happened to fast once it did (how many sends MMS today?)