It's not on par with the best TSMC has in Taiwan, but most companies are still using 4nm. Yes, 3nm has been shipping for over a year - but only if your company is named Apple. Intel just launched a small portion of its products using 3nm two months ago.
I think realistically it'd be more fair to say that 3nm is coming in 2025 and there's a huge distance between 2025 and 2028 (when they'll start doing 3nm and 2nm in the US). Right now, AMD, Nvidia, and Qualcomm aren't doing 3nm. If the world lost 3nm today, it'd basically be Apple's products that would get hit. It'd definitely screw over Apple and it'd mess up the future plans for AMD, Nvidia, and Qualcomm, but it's not like the industry has been using 3nm for over a year. No, only Apple.
The big problem is that there's a big difference between "we'll be bringing 3nm to the US in early 2026" and "we'll be bringing 2nm and 3nm to the US in 2028". If they started making 3nm in the US in early 2026, that's going to be less than a year behind most companies using 3nm. Qualcomm and Nvidia will probably start shipping 3nm in February 2025 and AMD will probably start shipping 3nm in late 2025.
If TSMC's US fab were 12-18 months behind their Taiwan fabs, it wouldn't really be a problem, except for Apple. Everyone else is waiting 18 months for TSMC's latest gen stuff anyway.
The problem isn't that the US fab can't do 3nm today. TSMC's Taiwan fabs aren't doing 3nm at scale unless your name is Apple. The problem is that their US fabs won't be doing 3nm for around 3 years after the industry moves over to 3nm. If the US fab could satisfy 4nm demand and Taiwan disappeared today, it'd mostly hit Apple's product line. The issue is that in 2026 or 2027, every company will be relying on 3nm and if Taiwan disappeared then, it'd hit the whole industry's product lines.
But it's possible that Intel's 18A will do amazing and Intel will be able to manufacture at scale and a lot of TSMC's business will move to Intel. Then the US (Intel) would be manufacturing more advanced chips than TSMC in Taiwan. TSMC isn't expected to make the move to High-NA EUV for a few more years so Intel has some time when it could overtake TSMC.
> Yes, 3nm has been shipping for over a year - but only if your company is named Apple. Intel just launched a small portion of its products using 3nm two months ago.
> I think realistically it'd be more fair to say that 3nm is coming in 2025
Almost everyone but Apple decided to skip N3B and wait for the later N3E. Intel decided to just be late with N3B, launching their laptop part in September and the desktop part in October. Apple, Qualcomm, and Mediatek all have N3E parts on shelves and in consumer's hands. 3nm is here, now. Two generations of TSMC 3nm have ramped to full production.
It may not seem like much since it's only Apple right now, but their 3nm SoCs are stunning. I can only imagine what the industry is going to look like when this tech becomes the standard. The miniaturization potential alone can transform many other technologies, let alone its value for low-power edge compute.
The difference isn't revolutionary, but noticeable. Whoever has it will have a competitive advantage.
I think realistically it'd be more fair to say that 3nm is coming in 2025 and there's a huge distance between 2025 and 2028 (when they'll start doing 3nm and 2nm in the US). Right now, AMD, Nvidia, and Qualcomm aren't doing 3nm. If the world lost 3nm today, it'd basically be Apple's products that would get hit. It'd definitely screw over Apple and it'd mess up the future plans for AMD, Nvidia, and Qualcomm, but it's not like the industry has been using 3nm for over a year. No, only Apple.
The big problem is that there's a big difference between "we'll be bringing 3nm to the US in early 2026" and "we'll be bringing 2nm and 3nm to the US in 2028". If they started making 3nm in the US in early 2026, that's going to be less than a year behind most companies using 3nm. Qualcomm and Nvidia will probably start shipping 3nm in February 2025 and AMD will probably start shipping 3nm in late 2025.
If TSMC's US fab were 12-18 months behind their Taiwan fabs, it wouldn't really be a problem, except for Apple. Everyone else is waiting 18 months for TSMC's latest gen stuff anyway.
The problem isn't that the US fab can't do 3nm today. TSMC's Taiwan fabs aren't doing 3nm at scale unless your name is Apple. The problem is that their US fabs won't be doing 3nm for around 3 years after the industry moves over to 3nm. If the US fab could satisfy 4nm demand and Taiwan disappeared today, it'd mostly hit Apple's product line. The issue is that in 2026 or 2027, every company will be relying on 3nm and if Taiwan disappeared then, it'd hit the whole industry's product lines.
But it's possible that Intel's 18A will do amazing and Intel will be able to manufacture at scale and a lot of TSMC's business will move to Intel. Then the US (Intel) would be manufacturing more advanced chips than TSMC in Taiwan. TSMC isn't expected to make the move to High-NA EUV for a few more years so Intel has some time when it could overtake TSMC.