I wasn't really meaning I was going to only rely on personal observation per se, I am just saying that humans are intrinsicly historically wrong about everything.
We have already sent probes beyond our system and to many planets within our system and we only discovered FLIGHT 100 years ago.
Just imagine 1,000 years from now.
I think it's just as likely that technological development will follow an S curve as remain exponential. Look at Moore's Law -- the laws of physics provide a hard ceiling for certain kinds of technological progress.
http://chem.tufts.edu/AnswersInScience/RelativityofWrong.htm
We have already sent probes beyond our system and to many planets within our system and we only discovered FLIGHT 100 years ago.
Just imagine 1,000 years from now.
I think it's just as likely that technological development will follow an S curve as remain exponential. Look at Moore's Law -- the laws of physics provide a hard ceiling for certain kinds of technological progress.